000
AXNT20 KNHC 130339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Nov 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

North-Central Atlantic Gale Warning: a strong cold front is moving 
off the northeast Florida coast this morning accompanied by fresh 
to strong winds on either side of it. The front is expected to 
reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas by Sat morning,
and from near 31N55W to 25N65W and stationary to eastern Cuba by 
Sun morning. Fresh to gale-force winds southwest winds will 
precede the front to over the waters north of about 29N. The cold 
front portion will shift east of 55W late Sun night while the 
stationary portion weakens. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N16W to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N20W to 03N30W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 04N to 06N between 20W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend area to near
Brownsville, Texas. Building high pressure north of the front is 
already supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas off 
Veracruz in the far southwest Gulf. Moderate N winds and 2-4 ft 
seas follow the front, with light breezes and 1-3 ft seas 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the front will rapidly shift across the 
rest of the basin overnight and exit the area early on Fri. Fresh
to locally strong northwest to north winds will prevail near 
Tampico and Veracruz through early on Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to 
locally fresh north winds are expected in the wake of the cold 
front. High pressure will build southward into the region this 
weekend, with fresh to strong easterly winds across portions of 
the northern and central Gulf. Another strong cold front is 
expected to push off the Texas coast Mon morning, and quickly move
across the basin through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will 
follow the front across much of the basin. Winds to near gale- 
force are possible in the far NE Gulf early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the region
and a 1007 mb low pressure along the NW coast of Colombia is 
causing fresh to strong trades over the eastern and central 
Caribbean with seas 6-8 ft. Moderate trade winds are found 
elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas, except for light to gentle breezes and
2-4 ft over the northwest Caribbean. A pair of surface troughs 
are analyzed in the western Caribbean supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly over the NW Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the central
and eastern Caribbean tonight, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. The pressure gradient will loosen starting Fri, 
weakening the trades. A cold front will enter the NW waters Fri. 
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are likely behind this 
front over the northwestern Caribbean Sat through Sun. Trade 
winds may strengthen again over the south central Caribbean early
next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the area north
of 20N and west of 60W ahead of a cold front starting move off the
northeast Florida coast. Strong SW winds and 6-8 ft seas are
active between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of the front.  
A broad ridge centered by 1023 mb high pressure near 32N42W 
dominates the remainder of the basin. This pattern is supporting 
fresh to strong SW winds elsewhere north of 20N and east of 55W 
with 4-6 ft seas. The pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds
and 5-7 ft seas over the deep tropics south of 20N and west of
35W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere
across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is expected to reach from near 
31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas by Sat morning, and from near 
31N55W to 25N65W and stationary to eastern Cuba by Sun morning. 
Fresh to gale-force winds southwest winds will precede the front 
to over the waters north of about 29N. The cold front portion will
shift east of 55W late Sun night while the stationary portion 
weakens. Winds will briefly diminish below fresh speeds over the 
forecast waters on Sun. A building Bermuda High will tighten the 
pressure gradient and support fresh to strong northeast winds 
south of 27N west of 65W Mon and Mon night. The fresh to strong 
winds will expand northward in coverage Tue and Tue night.

$$ 

Christensen