000
AXNT20 KNHC 272245
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Dec 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2235 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach the
NW Gulf waters late Sun night and move quickly southeastward,
departing the basin Tue night. Fresh to near gale-force winds will
follow the front, covering much of the Gulf waters, along with
rough seas. A building ridge behind the front will support gale-
force N winds and rough to very rough seas off Tampico Mon 
afternoon and night. These winds and seas will reach the waters
off Veracruz Mon night and persist until late Tue. Seas may peak
around 18 ft off Veracruz Mon night into Tue. Conditions will 
improve from north to south Tue into Wed.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A frontal boundary extends 
from 31N44W to 27N70W. Large NW swell behind the front is 
producing 12 to 15 ft seas north of 27N between 45W and 61W. A 
reinforcing set of large NW swell will move into the northern 
waters tonight to maintain the area of rough to very rough seas.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N15W and continues to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W
to 02N35W and to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the Gulf waters, supporting
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas. A few
showers are noted in the south-central Gulf, while generally dry
conditions prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the
Gulf through late Sun. The next cold front is expected to enter
the northwest Gulf early Mon, followed by fresh to strong
northerly winds and rough seas, except gale conditions will be
possible in the far west central and southwest Gulf by Mon
afternoon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the
basin through mid week as high pressure builds over the region 
following the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad ridge north of the basin supports moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds across much of the central and eastern Caribbean,
along with seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure
across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong winds off Colombia through mid week, with
moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold
front will move through the Yucatan Channel Tue night, reach from
central Cuba to Belize by late Wed, and from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras by late Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the ongoing
significant swell.

The pressure gradient between a storm system north of Bermuda and
the subtropical ridge centered in the eastern Gulf supports
moderate to locally strong westerly winds north of 26N and west of
60W. Seas in these waters are 7-12 ft. In the meantime, a cold
front extends into the north-central Atlantic waters, supporting
fresh to strong S-SW winds and rough seas, along with scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a weak high pressure system that supports
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending along
26N between 55W and 70W will dissipate through tonight. A second,
stronger cold front between roughly Bermuda and the coast of 
South Carolina is approaching the area from the north. Strong to 
near- gale force winds and rough seas will follow this front as it
moves to the east of the area by early Mon, leaving a trailing 
stationary front to dissipate along 21N. Large N swell will also 
follow this front, mixing with large swell already covering the 
area north of 22N and east of 70W. A third cold front will move 
off the northeast Florida coast Mon night, and will reach from 
Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by late Tue, from 31N60W to 
central Cuba by late Wed, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Thu 
night. 

$$
Delgado