000
AXNT20 KNHC 261016
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Oct 26 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Major Hurricane Melissa is centered near 16.3N 76.3W at 26/0900 UTC or
100 nm SSE of Kingston Jamaica, moving W at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 944 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft near the
center. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 90
nm of the center. In addition, a large banding feature is forming
east of the hurricane, with numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms
observed from 12n to 17N between 70W and 75W. Melissa is forecast
to move slowly westward to the south of Jamaica through Mon night,
then make a northward turn and move inland over Jamaica Tue.
Melissa is forecast increase forward speed and move across
eastern Cuba through Tue night maintaining major hurricane
strength. Melissa will continue to the northeast thereafter across
the southern Bahamas Wed and reach to the southeast of Bermuda by
late Thu.
Melissa is expected to bring very heavy rain to portions of
southern Hispaniola and Jamaica to at least Wed. Catastrophic
flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of
southern Hispaniola and Jamaica. Heavy rainfall is also expected
for eastern Cuba through at least Wed, causing possible life-
threatening flash flooding and landslides. For a complete
depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information. For the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory, please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 22N43W to 11N50W,
and is moving northwestward at 5 kt as it is interacting with an
upper- level trough in the vicinity. Scattered moderate convection
is from 15N to 25N between 37W and 45W. Moderate to fresh SE winds
and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted within 90 nm east of the trough from
15N to 20N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Mauritania and Senegal, then extends southwestward to 10N25W. An
ITCZ curves westward from 10N25W to 06N40W to 10N45W, then
resumes from 11N50W to 10N58W. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is noted near the ITCZ from 03N to 11N between 26W and
45W. Numerous moderate convection is active from 06N to
10N between 15W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection from 08N to
10N between 30W and 35W.
The tail end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms in the
Caribbean waters off Nicaragua and northern Colombia.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along an outflow
boundary moving through the northwest Gulf, north of 27N and west
of 90W. Fresh to strong E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are active
over the eastern basin and through the Florida Straits as the
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the
northeastern United States and Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate E to SE breezes and 3 to 5 ft are noted
elsewhere.
For the forecast, a weak cold front will enter the northern Gulf
late today, then stall across the northern Gulf Mon, and drift
northward Tue ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off
the Texas coast late Tue. The second front will sweep through the
southeast Gulf by Thu night. Strong winds and rough seas will
follow the front. Winds may reach gale force along the coast of
Mexico off Tampico and Veracruz Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section concerning Major
Hurricane Melissa.
No significant convection is evident currently, outside of the
thunderstorm activity discussed above in the Special Features
section. Outside of the area of Melissa in the central Caribbean,
moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted over
the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean.
For the forecast, Melissa will move slowly to 16.3N 76.8W this
afternoon, then to 16.5N 77.5W south of Jamaica tonight. Melissa
will move to 16.8N 77.9W Mon afternoon, then start a slow turn
northward and reach 17.5N 77.7W off the south coast of Jamaica Mon
night before moving inland through Tue morning. Melissa will move
offshore toward southeast Cuba and reach 18.7N 76.8W by Tue
afternoon. Melissa will move onshore over southeast Cuba Tue
afternoon and reach an inland position near 20.5N 75.4W Tue night.
Winds and seas will diminish across the Windward Passage Wed
night into Thu as Melissa continues to move rapidly to the
northeast past the southern Bahamas. Elsewhere, a cold front may
enter the Yucatan Channel by late Thu.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda to just
off Jupiter Inlet, Florida. Fresh to strong E winds and 6 to 9 ft
seas are noted west of 70W. A trough reaches from near the Azores
to 27N45W. N to NE swell of 8 to 10 ft is noted north of the
trough. Fresh SW to W winds and seas to 8 ft are also noted south
of the trough from 27N to 29N between 25W and 30W. Gentle to
moderate E breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to occasionally strong E to
NE winds and rough seas will persist west of 70W through tonight
as the pressure gradient prevails between high pressure building
over the northeastern United States and Hurricane Melissa in the
Caribbean. The front will lift north of the area through the early
part of the week, ahead of a stronger reinforcing front that will
move off the northeast Florida coast late Wed. Farther south,
Hurricane Melissa is strengthening in the central Caribbean near
Jamaica and is forecast to move across eastern Cuba late Tue into
Wed, then pass over the southern Bahamas late Wed into Thu, before
rapidly moving to the southeast of Bermuda by late Thu ahead of
the cold front.
$$
Christensen