000
AXNT20 KNHC 091642
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Dec 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1641 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, and 
continues southwestward to 05.5N17.5W, where it transitions to 
the ITCZ to 01N32W to near 02N49W. Scattered moderate convection 
is seen from 03S to 02N between 28.5W and 36W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida 
southwestward to the Yucatan Peninsula and to extreme southern 
Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure is building across the area 
behind the front. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Bay
of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf with seas of 8 to 10 ft. 
For the rest of the Gulf, gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail
with light to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, fresh NE winds and rough seas will continue in 
the Bay of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf through this 
evening, in the wake of a front that has stalled over the 
northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to 
NW winds and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin 
Wed afternoon ahead of a cold front moving through the southern 
United States. The front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by 
Thu morning, with winds turning to the N and weakening in the wake
of the front. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas
are expected over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as 
weak high pressure prevails over the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is analyzed from near western Cuba to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is found along 
the stationary front. The pressure gradient between the central 
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in northern 
South America and in the south-central and southwestern Caribbean
generally allows for moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 5 
to 7 ft to exist east of about 79W. Light to gentle winds, along 
with seas of 2 to 5 ft, prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds and moderate 
seas will prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean today. 
Widespread fresh trades and rough seas are expected to develop 
over this region on Wed as a tightening pressure gradient develops
between the Colombian low, a stalling front in the northwest 
basin and building high pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds 
will pulse to strong speeds offshore of northern Colombia and in 
the Gulf of Venezuela nightly through this weekend, and winds may 
reach near-gale force at times. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
trades will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the 
passages into this weekend. Locally rough seas in E swell in this 
region will subside through today, with a new E swell supporting 
rough seas Wed through this weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is dissipating. This front extends 
southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of the area near 34.5N58W 
to 31N59W to 27N69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are 
depicted along the dissipating front. A stronger cold front 
extends from near 31N63W to 26N74W, where it becomes stationary to
the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to 
strong southwest winds are ahead of both fronts, while similar 
wind speeds from the northwest are behind the stronger front. 
These winds are occurring roughly north of about 27N between 31W 
and 70W. In addition, an area of near-gale force SW winds is found
north of 30N between 53W and 61W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with these 
winds. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high center near 25N41W is dominating 
the Atlantic north of 23N between 35W and the Greater Antilles, 
with gentle to moderate clockwise winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft in 
moderate to large northerly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from
07N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh
trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft seas are present. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft seas are present 
over the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from south of Bermuda 
through the central Bahamas will progress eastward through the 
central Atlantic this week. Strong to locally near-gale force SW 
winds and rough seas will occur north of 27N and east of 65W ahead
of the cold front through late tonight, with widespread fresh to 
strong W to NW winds expected in the wake of the front north of 
29N and east of 70W. Winds will subside from west to east tonight 
into early Wed. NW swell associated with this front will expand 
southeastward over the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Wed,
supporting rough seas north of 26N by late tonight, and north of 
25N by Wed afternoon. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible 
north of 30N and east of 70W today into Wed afternoon. Seas will 
slowly subside from west to east through late week. Looking ahead,
fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas may develop offshore 
northern Florida by Wed evening, ahead of a cold front moving over
the southern United States. The cold front is slated to push 
offshore early Thu, with fresh NW winds and rough seas expected in
the wake of the front. 

$$
KRV