743 
AXNT20 KNHC 050607
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Dec 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 07N19W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 07N19W to 04N33W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 03N to 13N between 12W and 43W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pres near 29N91W to 
Tamaulipas and a few showers are noted near the boundary. A warm
front also extends from the low NE and along the Florida
Panhandle. Ahead of the front, a weak pre-frontal trough extends
from 28N85W to 24N87W. Otherwise, the tail of a dissipating
stationary front is across the Florida Straits. Behind the front,
winds are fresh to strong from the north and seas and seas are
moderate to 6 ft. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate or weaker
and seas are slight.  

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and 
moderate seas will occur in the western Gulf behind the front into
Fri afternoon. Localized near-gale force winds will be possible 
offshore of northeastern Mexico early on Fri. Mainly moderate or 
weaker winds are then expected over the basin Fri evening into 
Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to enter the 
northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep over the basin into early 
next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building 
seas in the wake of the front. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic surface ridging extending across the northern Caribbean
is supporting the continuation of moderate to fresh trade winds in
the central and eastern basin where seas are moderate to 7 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds are elswewhere, except for fresh NE to E
winds in the Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba. Seas are
slight to moderate with this winds.  

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and 
moderate seas are expected over much of the Caribbean through this
weekend as low pressure prevails over the south-central basin and
high pressure drifts eastward in the central Atlantic. Locally 
strong winds may pulse offshore of Colombia late tonight. Mainly 
moderate trade winds are then expected early next week. Rough seas
in E swell will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles and through 
the Atlantic Passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold 
front may approach the northwestern Caribbean early next week, 
allowing for generally tranquil marine conditions in the region. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N61W to the central Bahamas where
it becomes stall to the Florida Straits and also starts to
dissipate. Surface ridging dominate the remainder subtropical
waters along with moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate
seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening cold front is slated to
move through the central Atlantic on Fri, leading to fresh NW to 
NE winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through Fri 
night. A low pressure system moving through the southern United 
States will support fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore of 
northern Florida by Fri morning, with fresh to strong winds and 
locally rough seas expanding eastward into the central Atlantic 
this weekend. A cold front associated with this system will push 
offshore of the southeastern U.S. this weekend, leading to locally
fresh N to NE winds in the wake of the front offshore of Florida.
Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold 
front may move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early
next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and 
building seas ahead of and behind the front. 

$$
Ramos