000
AXNT20 KNHC 261016
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Oct 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Melissa is centered near 16.3N 76.3W at 26/0900 UTC or
100 nm SSE of Kingston Jamaica, moving W at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 944 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft near the
center. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 90 
nm of the center. In addition, a large banding feature is forming 
east of the hurricane, with numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms
observed from 12n to 17N between 70W and 75W. Melissa is forecast
to move slowly westward to the south of Jamaica through Mon night,
then make a northward turn and move inland over Jamaica Tue.
Melissa is forecast increase forward speed and move across 
eastern Cuba through Tue night maintaining major hurricane 
strength. Melissa will continue to the northeast thereafter across
the southern Bahamas Wed and reach to the southeast of Bermuda by
late Thu. 

Melissa is expected to bring very heavy rain to portions of 
southern Hispaniola and Jamaica to at least Wed. Catastrophic 
flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of 
southern Hispaniola and Jamaica. Heavy rainfall is also expected 
for eastern Cuba through at least Wed, causing possible life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. For a complete 
depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, 
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf 

Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of 
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several 
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information. For the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and 
Public Advisory, please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more 
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 22N43W to 11N50W, 
and is moving northwestward at 5 kt as it is interacting with an 
upper- level trough in the vicinity. Scattered moderate convection
is from 15N to 25N between 37W and 45W. Moderate to fresh SE winds
and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted within 90 nm east of the trough from
15N to 20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Mauritania and Senegal, then extends southwestward to 10N25W. An 
ITCZ curves westward from 10N25W to 06N40W to 10N45W, then 
resumes from 11N50W to 10N58W. Scattered to numerous moderate 
convection is noted near the ITCZ from 03N to 11N between 26W and 
45W. Numerous moderate convection is active from 06N to  
10N between 15W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection from 08N to
10N between 30W and 35W.

The tail end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms in the
Caribbean waters off Nicaragua and northern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along an outflow
boundary moving through the northwest Gulf, north of 27N and west
of 90W. Fresh to strong E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are active 
over the eastern basin and through the Florida Straits as the 
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the 
northeastern United States and Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate E to SE breezes and 3 to 5 ft are noted
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a weak cold front will enter the northern Gulf 
late today, then stall across the northern Gulf Mon, and drift 
northward Tue ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off 
the Texas coast late Tue. The second front will sweep through the 
southeast Gulf by Thu night. Strong winds and rough seas will 
follow the front. Winds may reach gale force along the coast of 
Mexico off Tampico and Veracruz Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section concerning Major 
Hurricane Melissa.

No significant convection is evident currently, outside of the 
thunderstorm activity discussed above in the Special Features 
section. Outside of the area of Melissa in the central Caribbean,
moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted over
the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft 
seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean. 

For the forecast, Melissa will move slowly to 16.3N 76.8W this 
afternoon, then to 16.5N 77.5W south of Jamaica tonight. Melissa 
will move to 16.8N 77.9W Mon afternoon, then start a slow turn 
northward and reach 17.5N 77.7W off the south coast of Jamaica Mon
night before moving inland through Tue morning. Melissa will move
offshore toward southeast Cuba and reach 18.7N 76.8W by Tue 
afternoon. Melissa will move onshore over southeast Cuba Tue 
afternoon and reach an inland position near 20.5N 75.4W Tue night.
Winds and seas will diminish across the Windward Passage Wed 
night into Thu as Melissa continues to move rapidly to the 
northeast past the southern Bahamas. Elsewhere, a cold front may 
enter the Yucatan Channel by late Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda to just
off Jupiter Inlet, Florida. Fresh to strong E winds and 6 to 9 ft
seas are noted west of 70W. A trough reaches from near the Azores
to 27N45W. N to NE swell of 8 to 10 ft is noted north of the 
trough. Fresh SW to W winds and seas to 8 ft are also noted south
of the trough from 27N to 29N between 25W and 30W. Gentle to
moderate E breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to occasionally strong E to 
NE winds and rough seas will persist west of 70W through tonight 
as the pressure gradient prevails between high pressure building 
over the northeastern United States and Hurricane Melissa in the 
Caribbean. The front will lift north of the area through the early
part of the week, ahead of a stronger reinforcing front that will
move off the northeast Florida coast late Wed. Farther south, 
Hurricane Melissa is strengthening in the central Caribbean near 
Jamaica and is forecast to move across eastern Cuba late Tue into 
Wed, then pass over the southern Bahamas late Wed into Thu, before
rapidly moving to the southeast of Bermuda by late Thu ahead of 
the cold front.

$$
Christensen