000
AXNT20 KNHC 311713
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 
low pressure over SE Georgia southwestward to the southern 
portion of the Florida Big Bend to 21N89W. Strong to near-gale NW
winds are already spreading across the basin in the wake of the 
front, with gale force winds over the SW, NE coastal waters, and 
SE coastal waters. The gale force winds will progress across the
eastern half of the basin through Sun morning as the front moves 
SE, exiting the basin by this afternoon. The gale winds in the SW
Gulf will dissipate by late this morning. Rough to very rough 
seas will prevail across the basin, with highest seas near the
strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E across 
the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across 
the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

W Atlantic Storm Warning: A rapidly intensifying low pressure 
system is centered just N of the area near 33N75W. The low will 
track NE offshore the Carolina coast through tonight while 
expanding. A strong arctic cold front associated with this system 
is currently moving through the Gulf of America. The front will 
continue moving across Florida today and sweep across the western 
Atlantic through late Sun. In its wake, a very large area of 
westerly strong to gale force winds and rapidly rising seas will 
cover the waters N of about 24N and west of 60W Sat through Sun 
evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. Storm force winds
will develop on either side of the front by Sun morning, mainly N
of 30N between 69W-73W. These conditions will prevail through Sun
night. Very rough to high seas will follow the front, peaking to 
28 ft on Sun. The front is expected to reach from near 31N71W to 
eastern Cuba this evening, from near 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola 
Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from near 26N55W to 
eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. High pressure will shift E 
roughly along 29N next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts
for today and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from
these upcoming rapidly changing conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and for more 
information on both events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W to 03N19W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning in effect for the basin. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across
the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across 
the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Another cold front is 
expected to enter the NW Gulf Wed and reach from the Florida 
panhandle to the western Gulf by Wed afternoon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface trough extends from eastern Cuba to the Nicaragua/Costa
Rica boundary. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate seas 
are west of the trough. Meanwhile, moderate eastern winds and 
moderate seas are occurring in the south-central and eastern 
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the unusually strong cold front that is 
currently moving through the Gulf of America will move into the 
northwestern Caribbean today overtaking the trough. The cold 
front will reach from the vicinity of the Windward Passage to 
15N76W and to Panama late tonight, and from Puerto Rico to NE 
Colombia by Sun evening. It will then begin to stall from eastern 
Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near 
gale force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. 
By early Tue, fresh to strong N to NW winds will prevail W of a 
line from the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia to central Cuba along 
with rough seas. These winds and seas will likely diminish in 
coverage by midweek. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the Storm Warning for the western Atlantic.

The pressure gradient is tightening in the western waters of the
tropical Atlantic due to an approaching cold front that is 
currently moving through the eastern Gulf of America. A 1006 mb
low pres is analyzed N of the Bahamas near 27N74W, with trough
extending from the low to 21N76W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted N of 24N between 63W-71W. This activity is supported also  
by an upper-level disturbance riding along a subtropical 
jetstream branch that passes over that part of the area. Moderate
to strong east to southeast winds are between 64W and 74W, with
rough seas. To the east, a surface trough extends from near 
30N51W to 27N61W. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern half
of the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 30N23W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features 
section for details.

$$
ERA