431 
AXNT20 KNHC 062153
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jul 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed near 42W, S of 17N 
moving quickly westward at 20-25 kt. Any nearby convection is 
described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the section below.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed near 57W, S of 16N to
along the border of Guyana and Suriname, moving westward at 
around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ in the section below.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 83W, S of 17N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is 
described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across portions of Mauritania just
offshore into the Atlantic Ocean from 17.5N16W to near 14.5N19W.
The ITCZ extends from well S of the Cabo Verde Islands near 09N25W
to 07N40W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 07.5N46W to
07N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from approximately 03N to 12N between 36W and 59W. Similar
convection is noted within 210 nm SW of the coast of Africa
between 11W and 19W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Subtropical ridging continues to be the dominant feature over the
basin, with the axis extending into the central Gulf from the 
east. A surface trough that extends from near Apalachee Bay,
Florida into the N-central Gulf near 28N90W is supporting some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms just off the coast
of the Florida Panhandle. Isolated activity can be found across
portions of the remainder of the Gulf in a moist summer-time
pattern. Winds are moderate or weaker, mainly anticyclonic, 
throughout the basin, with generally slight seas, locally moderate
seas in the central Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the basin 
through the forecast period, thus supporting gentle to moderate 
winds over the western half of the Gulf, except for fresh to 
strong ENE winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. Moderate
or weaker winds are forecast for the eastern half of the Gulf 
while slight seas are forecast basin-wide. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower
pressure over northern South America continue to support fresh to
strong trades over the central basin, with moderate to fresh E
winds elsewhere, except weaker in the NW Caribbean N of 20N. Seas
of 7-11 ft are present in the central basin, with slight seas in 
the NW basin, and 4-7 ft seas elsewhere. Convection in the western
Caribbean is mainly associated with a tropical wave and is 
described in the above section. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, being induced 
by upper-level divergence.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to 
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
over the central Caribbean through the week. The aerial extent of 
these winds will continue to increase through midweek as the 
Atlantic ridge continues to build westward. By Wed, the fresh to 
strong winds are expected to extend across most of the east, 
central and SW Caribbean. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at
night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through 
Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the
basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong E to 
SE winds are forecast at night through the forecast period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic N of 20N, 
and is anchored by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 29N39W. The
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas 
for waters N of 22N and W of 20W, slightly higher seas E of 40W, 
with mainly fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas to the S of 22N. Upper 
level divergence to the east of a trough aloft is leading to 
scattered moderate convection N of 22N and W of 63W, including in
the vicinity of the Bahamas. A surface trough N of 31N in the
central Atlantic supports some similar activity across the
discussion waters N of 27N between 43W and 63W. Fresh to strong
N-NE winds are found from 19N to the Canary and Madeira Islands
between Africa and 24W due to the normally tight pressure gradient
found across that region, where seas are also locally rough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will
stay in place through the forecast period. This pattern will 
continue to support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 
23N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Strong winds, with 
moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, 
including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Fri night.

$$
Lewitsky