617 
AXNT20 KNHC 171016
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends just offshore Africa to 12N18W. The 
ITCZ stretches from 10N17W to 06N31W to 04N51W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ
axis.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1014 mb high pressure centered in the NE Gulf continues to
be the main feature in the basin, leading to light to gentle winds
over most of the area, with moderate southerly winds in the W Gulf
W of 94W. Seas are less than 2 ft, except 2 to 4 ft where the
moderate winds are ongoing.  

For the forecast, high pressure building into the SE U.S. will 
lead to gradually increasing SE flow over the basin, with fresh 
winds developing by mid-week, especially in the NW Gulf, near a 
cold front that will stall over Texas through late week. Slight 
seas will build to moderate as the winds increase. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over the NW Caribbean, extending from
western Cuba to eastern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection
associated with this trough is present between Cuba and the 
Cayman Islands. Another surface trough is in the NE Caribbean
along 65W, to the N of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is noted
E of this trough axis, impacting portions of the Leeward Islands.
Mainly light to gentle winds prevail, with locally moderate winds
within 90 nm of the south coast of Cuba, close to the
aforementioned trough. Seas are 3 ft or less, except for some 3 to
5 ft seas in N swell propagating through Atlantic passages in the
NE basin. 

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient over the area will 
generally maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin
into early Tue. The trade winds will then increase to mostly 
fresh speeds as western Atlantic high pressure expands 
southeastward toward the Greater Antilles while the Colombian low 
becomes evident. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has stalled from 31N34W to 24N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm on either side of the front to the N of
27N. Decaying NW swell with seas to 9 ft remain behind the front
N of 28N and E of 50W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are N of 28N
between 60W and 75W ahead the next cold front. Seas over this 
area of stronger winds are in the 8 to 12 ft range in NW swell. 
The Azores High dominates the remainder central and eastern 
subtropical Atlantic waters. A tighter pressure gradient between 
the ridge and Africa the front continues to support moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft between the NW coast of
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands, including the Canary Islands 
and adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate 
waters S of 20N. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate
seas are ongoing elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will enter NW waters 
the waters today, then weaken and stall Tue from around 30N60W to 
the Turks and Caicos. Strong SW winds and rough seas can be 
expected ahead of the front N of 29N today, with some rough seas 
lingering behind the front N of 28N over NE waters until the front
dissipates Tue night. High pressure sinking southward over the 
waters for the latter half of the week should bring relatively 
benign conditions. 

$$
Konarik