000
AXNT20 KNHC 221010
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jun 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 38W from 05N to 14N, moving 
westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen where
the wave axis meets the ITCZ, particularly from 04N to 08N between
32W and 40W.

A second tropical wave has its axis near 55W from 05N to 16N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 09N to 12N between 50W and 56W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 65W/66W from 16N southward to central Venezuela, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave
axis. A wind surge follows this wave.

A tropical wave is over northern Central America with axis along
87W from 18N southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the far
eastern Pacific. This wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is mainly occurring in 
the eastern Pacific region along the monsoon trough which extends
across southern Nicaragua into the SW Caribbean.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the 
coast of Mauritania near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 
10N20W to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 07N52W. Aside 
from the convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N between
40W and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region producing moderate to fresh SE
winds over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds
over the eastern Gulf. The exception are fresh to strong E winds 
to the NW of the Yucatan Penninsula associated with local effects,
and over the far NE Gulf. Seas are 3 to 6 ft W of 90W, and 1 to 3
ft E of 90W. Showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed 
along the coast of Mexico, particularly between Tampico and 
Veracruz. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this 
convective activity. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters over the next several days. SE winds on the western 
periphery of the ridge will continue to transport abundant 
tropical moisture northward across the western Gulf through Mon, 
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The 
stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds and 
locally higher seas. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal 
trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds along with moderate seas are 
expected over the central and western Gulf through the weekend 
before diminishing early this week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Please, see the 
Tropical Waves section for more details. 

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh 
to strong winds over most of the central Caribbean, with the
strongest winds, in the 25 to 30 kt range, near the coast of 
Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. These winds are the 
result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the
Colombian low. Seas are near 12 ft off the coast of Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern 
and SW portions of the basin, while gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate are noted over the NW Caribbean. Clusters of 
moderate to strong convection are over the SW Caribbean, including
northern Colombia and southern Nicaragua, in association with a 
northward displacement of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure
and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades over the
central part of the basin through mid-week. Moderate to rough seas
are expected within these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are
forecast in the Windward Passage tonight and again Mon night. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are noted between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. 

A surface trough extends from a weak 1021 mb low pressure located
near 31N57W to 28N66W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are near these features. A second surface trough runs from 31N44W
to 27N52W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the trough
axis. High pressure of 1032 mb located near the Azores dominates
the remainder of the forecast area with another high pressure of 
1023 mb situated W of Bermuda near 32N70W. Under this weather pattern
and based on scatterometer and altimeter data, fresh to strong trades
and rough seas are noted over the tropical Atlantic, mainly S of 
19N between 35W and 45W, and from 11N to 17N between 45W and 61W, 
including the Atlantic passages and exposures. Fresh to strong N 
to NE winds and rough seas also dominate the waters just N of the 
Cabo Verde Islands to about 28N and E of 30W, including between 
the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail S 
of 25N with gentle to locally moderate winds N of 25N with the 
exception of fresh to strong E winds just N of Hispaniola to about
21N, including approaches to the Windward Passage. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will 
persist over the NE waters over the next 48 to 72 hours while the
weak low will drift NE over the next couple of days. Otherwise, 
high pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with 
moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the 
next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. 

$$ 
GR