000
AXNT20 KNHC 291754
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Oct 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1754 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Melissa is centered near 22.1N 75.3W at 29/1800 UTC or
100 nm SSE of the Central Bahamas, moving NE at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 21 ft just 
NE of the center. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is 
expected to move across the southeastern or central Bahamas this 
afternoon and evening, and pass near or to the west of Bermuda 
late Thursday and Thursday night. Some slight strengthening is 
possible today into tomorrow with little change in strength 
thereafter.
 
Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Minor
coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north 
coast of eastern Cuba and minor coastal flooding is expected along
the coast of Haiti.

Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of 
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands during the 
next day or so, and now affecting the Bahamas and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands, and will spread toward Bermuda later this week, 
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: 
A strong cold over the northwestern Gulf will progress 
southeastward over the region through Thu morning. Widespread 
fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will prevail in the 
wake of the front through Thu evening. Frequent gusts to gale 
force are expected in the wake of the front in the NW Gulf through
this morning. Gale force winds along the coast of Mexico offshore
of Tampico will spread southward to Veracruz today. Conditions 
will improve early Thu night.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 43W from 04N to 15N. It is 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are from 08N to 16N between 40W and 53W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 13N, moving 
westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
found along the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and 
extends southwestward to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to
07N41W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 10N 
between 17W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about 
the Gale Warning in effect over the basin.

A strong cold front extends from Alabama to near Tampico, Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the front, west of
92W. A tight pressure gradient between the front and strong high 
pressure over NW United States supports near-gale to gale force 
winds north of the front according to the latest satellite derived
winds. Moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas are 
ahead of the front elsewhere across the basin. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress 
southeastward over the region through Thu morning. Widespread 
fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will prevail in the 
wake of the front through Thu evening. Frequent gusts to gale 
force are expected in the wake of the front in the NW Gulf through
this morning. Gale force winds along the coast of Mexico offshore
of Tampico will spread southward to Veracruz today. Conditions 
will improve early Thu night. Another cold front may enter the NW 
Gulf Sun. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Attention remains focused on Major Hurricane Melissa is centered
near 22.1N 75.3W at 29/1800 UTC. Please read the Special Features
section for all the information related to this powerful 
hurricane. 

Elsewhere across the Caribbean winds are moderate to fresh in 
speeds, except for gentle winds over the eastern and SW part of
the basin. Seas with these winds are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, Melissa will move further N of the area today, 
with marine conditions in the north-central Caribbean improving 
through the day. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean 
early Thu and extend from central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of 
Honduras by Thu evening before dissipating early Fri. Trade winds 
will freshen over the E Caribbean Sat evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for the details related 
to major Hurricane Melissa. 

Hurricane Melissa is centered near 22.1N 75.3W at 29/1800 UTC or
100 nm SSE of the Central Bahamas, moving NE at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. To the north of Melissa, a 
stationary dissipating front extends from 31N71W to 25N80W. 
Scattered showers are depicted ahead of the front between 61W and 
72W. A broad surface ridge covers the remainder subtropical 
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, Melissa will move to 23.4N 74.3W 
this evening, 26.9N 71.9W Thu morning, 31.6N 67.7W Thu evening, 
37.2N 61.8W Fri morning, become extratropical and move to 43.3N 
55.2W Fri evening, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 
49.0N 48.4W Sat morning. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will 
prevail over the waters N of 29N and W of 60W through tonight. A 
new cold front will move offshore of the southeastern U.S. early 
Thu morning, leading to increasing winds and building seas over 
the western Atlantic ahead of Melissa through late Fri morning. 
Rough seas associated with the passage of Melissa gradually 
subside by the weekend. 

$$
KRV