000
AXNT20 KNHC 121026
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue May 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 30W from 02S to 10N, and is 
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
ongoing from 03S to 13N between 20W and 37W.

A tropical wave is inland Venezuela with axis near 62W extending
southward from 15N. This wave is moving westward at 5-10 kt. 
There is no convection associated with it in the SE Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 11N16W and continues SW to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends 
from 00N33W to the coast of Brazil at 00N50W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 01S to 05N between 38W and 
52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends from Apalachicola, Florida to the 
western Bay of Campeche this morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds are occurring behind the front, except for fresh to strong N
winds occurring offshore Veracruz per a recent scatterometer 
pass. Light to gentle winds are ahead of the front. Slight seas 
prevail across the Gulf, except for moderate seas to 6 ft offshore
Veracruz.

For the forecast, the front will steadily move southeastward and 
extend from the Big Bend of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche
later this morning, then stall and dissipate on Wed. Winds will 
be generally moderate or weaker on either side of the front, 
except for fresh to locally strong offhsore Veracruz, Mexico 
through early this evening. High pressure and quiescent conditions
will dominate on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, another weak cold 
front should enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E 
Gulf on Fri. Otherwise, SE winds are forecast to reach mainly 
fresh speeds over the western half of the basin Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong 
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central to
southwest Caribbean. Winds are locally near gale-force in the 
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and
moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and 
eastern Caribbean along with 4-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a moderate gradient between the Bermuda-Azores 
High north of the area and the Colombian Low will continue to 
force fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central basin 
through the weekend, with the strongest winds being offshore 
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh 
trades are forecast across the remainder of forecast waters 
through Sat night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the 
tropical N Atlantic waters from Wed morning into early Sun.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N73W to NE Florida near 30N81W this
morning. Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the 
Gulf of America result in isolated to widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of
68W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the 
influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh 
winds and moderate to locally rough seas S of 22N. Moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will extend along 
30N and become stationary Wed morning, then it will lift north of 
our waters as a warm front by Thu morning. While winds should be 
fresh to locally strong west of the front, scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are forecast to continue to occur along the front. 
Looking ahead, another weak cold front will reach the Atlantic 
from the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W 
Fri morning, and progressing from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning.
S winds ahead of the front and north of 27N will be fresh to 
strong.

$$
Ramos