000
AXNT20 KNHC 212250
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jul 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.4N 87.2W at 21/2100
UTC or 90 nm WSW of Panama City Florida, moving NW at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 15
ft on the E semicircle of the center. Bertha remains a sheared 
tropical storm. The low-level center is exposed again, with 
bursts of deep convection displaced to the south by strong 
northerly shear. The convection consists of numerous moderate to 
scattered strong convection covering the waters from 27N to 29N 
between 86W and 88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted elsewhere from 26N to 28N between 87W and 
92W. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the 
northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days or so. Little 
change in strength is expected tonight, and gradual weakening is 
forecast Wednesday through Friday. Bertha is expected to produce 
total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher 
totals around 6 inches through Thursday along the central Gulf 
Coast from western Florida into southern Louisiana. This rainfall
may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas. 
Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along
the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two 
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is W of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis along 
32W from 05N to 19W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Dry air surrounding
the wave is precluding any convection near it at this time. 

Another tropical wave is along 47W from 09N to 21N, moving W at 
10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N25W and to 08N35W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N35W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 29W and
40W. Similar convective activity is noted over northern Guyana. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Bertha located in the NE Gulf. The most recent
scatterometer data indicate that the fresh to strong southerly 
winds associated with the periphery of Bertha extend eastward
reaching the west coast of Florida, including the Tampa Bay area,
N of 25N. Moderate or weaker winds are noted W of 90W and over 
the southeastern Gulf waters under a weak ridge.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bertha is near 29.4N 87.2W at 
5 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 995 mb. Bertha will weaken slightly as it moves 
toward southeast Louisiana overnight, reaching 29.6N 87.9W by Wed
morning, 29.5N 89.3W by Wed afternoon, and 29.3N 91.4W by Thu 
morning. Bertha will weaken further as it moves along the coast 
of Louisiana, reaching 29.4N 93.4W Thu afternoon, then moving 
inland and weakening to a tropical depression near 29.8N 95.6W by
Fri morning. The remnant low of Bertha will continue inland 
reaching 30.3N 97.6W by Fri afternoon. Bertha will dissipate Sat 
afternoon. Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of 
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward 
during the rest of the week. Elsewhere, weak high pressure over 
the western Gulf will dissipate by midweek. After midweek, 
Atlantic high pressure will extend westward to the central Gulf 
following Bertha. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower 
pressure over NW Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trade
winds over most of the central and SW Caribbean, including the 
Windward Passage, and near Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic. Gentle
to moderate winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Buoy 42058
located near 14N76W indicates seas of 8 to 9 ft. For the remainder
of the basin, winds are moderate or weaker, with slight to moderate
seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian
low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough 
seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast 
period. During the same period, fresh to locally strong NE to E 
winds are expected in the Windward Passage through Wed night. 
Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras through Wed 
night as well. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate 
seas will prevail elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 29N58W to 19N63W. A large area of
showers and thunderstorms is associated with this trough. This
convective activity is affecting mainly the waters from 22N to 
29N between 55W and 70W. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence
of this trough and provided observations of fresh to locally 
strong winds on either side of the trough N of 23N. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region supporting
mainly gentle to moderate winds, with the exception of fresh to 
locally strong N to NE winds between the Canary Islands, moderate
to fresh NE winds N of the tropical wave located near 32W, and
moderate to fresh winds offshore Haiti and eastern Cuba, including
approaches to the Windward Passage. Seas are generally moderate,
with locally rough seas E of 35W based on altimeter data.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough 
will move westward reaching near 70W by Wed afternoon and to 
near 75W by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate 
seas are expected on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to 
locally strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, 
including approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast
period. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are 
forecast elsewhere E of the Bahamas through Fri, except S of 23N 
E of about 77W where mostly fresh trades are expected into Sun. 

$$
GR