881 
AXNT20 KNHC 102310
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Apr 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and extends southwestward to 04N17W, where it 
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to NE Brazil near 02S44W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south 
of 04N between 10W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends across the SE of the United States into the Gulf
region. The associated pressure gradient is supporting moderate 
to fresh NE to E winds over the eastern Gulf with seas of 5 to 8
ft. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas are 
occurring over the western Gulf. A few showers with isolated 
thunderstorms are currently noted mainly over the NW and SE 
parts of the basin. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. 
will support moderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas 
across the Gulf through the middle of next week. The exception 
will be on Monday, when strong east winds will develop across the
eastern half of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are moving across the NW Gulf in the offshore waters of Texas. 
This activity may hold together through tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the strong ridge over the eastern
United States and lower pressures in northern South America
results in fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft 
across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh 
easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the north-central,
SW and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds 
and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are flared-up over easter Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola likely
associated with the southern end of a cold front over eastern
Cuba and a surface trough over Hispaniola. Elsewhere, shallow 
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the 
basin producing brief showers.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from 
the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and 
increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds over the 
south-central Caribbean through the weekend and into early next 
week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will 
prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of 
Hispaniola starting on Sat night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from just E of Bermuda to eastern Cuba. A
band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front, mainly N
of 22N. The tight pressure gradient between this front and the 
ridge over the eastern United States sustains fresh to strong NE 
winds and rough seas up to 12 ft behind the front. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds and rough seas are evident N of 27N ahead of the 
front to about 55W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is 
under the influence of an extensive subtropical ridge anchored by a 
1034 high pressure located SW of the Azores near 34N37W. Fresh to 
strong easterly trade winds and rough seas are observed under the 
influence of the ridge, particularly N of 15N and E of 55W. 
Elsewhere, moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure is building 
southward north of the aforementioned front. The pressure gradient
between these two features will maintain strong northeast through
tonight, then mostly fresh wind speeds will prevail until Sun. 
Rough seas from large northeast swell will linger into the start 
of next week between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Fresh to strong 
northeast winds are expected early on Sun and continue through 
early next week as the pressure gradient tightens across the 
area. 

$$
GR