179 
AXNT20 KNHC 081021
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1010 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near
08N13W, then runs southwestward to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues 
westward from 06N17W across 02N30W to 04N47W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 12W and 26W, and from
02N to 07N between 37W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high remains stationary over the east-central Gulf,
providing moderate or weaker SE winds and slight seas to the
eastern half of the basin. The gradient of pressure between the
ridge and low pressure along Mexico and Texas, ahead of the next
front, is supporting fresh to strong SE winds W of 90W along with
moderate seas to 7 ft.  

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds across the 
western half of the Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds
tonight while expanding eastward over much of the eastern Gulf. 
These winds will preceed the next cold front forecast to come off 
the coast of Texas Fri night. Strong to near gale force N winds 
following the front will rapidly reach gale speed near Tampico Sat
morning, and Veracruz adjacent waters late Sat through Mon 
morning. The front will exit the basin Mon morning and conditions 
in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1018 mb high east of the northern Bahamas sustains a trade-wind
pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. The gradient between the
ridge and low pressure over NW Colombia supports strong to near
gale force NE to E winds off Colombia and S Panama where seas are
rough to 10 ft. Fresh trades are elsewhere across the central
basin, including the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds
are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Mon night due to the 
gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low 
pressure over northern Colombia. Rough seas to 11 ft will occur 
within these winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast 
elsewhere in the central and SE Caribbean, including the Windward 
Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will 
be likely in the Windward Passage late Fri into Sat night. 
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the NW 
Caribbean, except for fresh NE winds in the lee side of Cuba 
developing tonight and continuing into Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1018 mb E of the northern Bahamas is supporting
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the
subtropical waters W of 45W. A cold front is in the central
subtropical waters, extending from 31N42W to 25N49W where it
transtions to a surface trough that continues to the Virgin
Islands. Scattered heavy showers are within 240 nm ahead of the
front and N of 23N, and gales are ongoing N of 30N. Over the E
subtropical Atlantic, stronger high pressure of 1034 mb near the
Azores, supports fresh to strong NE to E winds E of 42W and rough
seas to 12 ft. The fresh winds and rough seas to 9 ft extend to the
tropical Atlantic waters E of 53W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building in 
the wake of a cold front with tail just N of the region will 
support moderate to fresh NE winds across the offshores E of the 
Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward 
Passage from this evening through Sun. A new cold front will 
emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong NW 
winds will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from 
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning and dissipate Mon 
night into Tue.

$$
Ramos