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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 131726

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 07N11W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 03N39W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either
sides of the ITCZ between 16W-25W. 


A stationary front extends across the basin from the Atlantic,
reaching the basin near 30N84W to 29N89W to 23N93W. Upper-level 
diffluence prevails east of the front supporting cloudiness and 
scattered moderate convection, mainly east of 90W. Scatterometer 
data depicts moderate to fresh winds east of 90W, while light to 
moderate winds prevail west of 90W. 

The front will transition to a cold front this afternoon and 
quickly sweep across the southeastern Gulf through Sat, reaching 
the Straits of Florida Sat evening and to southeast of the area 
early Sun. High pressure behind the front will shift to just east 
of northeast Florida on Sun allowing for mainly fresh southerly 
winds to set up over the far western Gulf. These winds will shift 
eastward and diminish through Mon as the next cold front 
approaches the Texas coast. This front will move off the Texas 
coast Mon afternoon, reach from near Pensacola, Florida to 25N93W 
and to near Veracruz early Tue and from near Apalachicola, Florida
to 24N89W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue night. Gale 
force northerly winds are possible west of the front near the 
coast of Mexico. 


Relatively dry air and fair weather prevails across the basin. A
surface trough extends from 18N65W to 10N65W with scattered
showers. This activity will affect Puerto Rico today.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the
majority of the basin mainly east of 80W, while light to gentle 
winds prevail west of 80W.

Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the
region today as high pressure in the Atlantic shifts eastward.
Trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will
increase early next week. Fresh trades along with moderate NE
swell is expected in Tropical N Atlantic waters this weekend.


A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W to
28N78W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N46W to
18N49W. This trough is the reflection of an upper level low
currently in this area. Scattered showers are noted along and
within 120 nm east of the trough. Surface ridging prevail

The stationary will weaken to a trough by tonight. Southerly 
winds will increase tonight and Sat ahead of a weak cold front 
expected to move east across the northern waters this weekend. A 
stronger cold front may move off the northeast Florida on Tue