000
AXNT20 KNHC 201028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Mar 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a gale
warning, in effect for the high seas zones of Irving, west of 
Madeira, Meteor and Agadir, until 21/00 UTC at least, with severe
gusts. Please refer to the next Special Feature for details on 
associated very large swells. Please refer to the high seas 
forecast issued by Meteo-France on the website: 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Very large, long-period north 
swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in 
the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N
through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-24 ft into Sat night, 
mainly N of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across 
these northeastern waters will then gradually reduce in areal 
coverage with the remaining very rough seas subsiding below 12 ft 
near the Canary Islands Mon. Please refer to the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W, then curves southwestward to 04N14W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N14W to 01N30W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is observed from 06S to 05N and 
west of 16W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface ridging anchored by a 1024 mb high near the mouth of the 
Mississippi River extends basin-wide, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The pressure gradient between this ridge and 
a stationary front SE of the area is leading to fresh to locally 
strong NE winds across the SE Gulf, along with moderate to rough 
seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across 
the Gulf region and a weakening stationary front over the western 
Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE 
winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf, including the 
Straits of Florida, through today. Moderate to fresh NE winds are 
expected nightly, through the forecast period, across the eastern 
Bay of Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal 
trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the 
offshore waters of northern Costa Rica. A few showers are noted 
ahead of the front. Fresh to locally strong N winds prevail W of 
the front, with seas to 7 ft. To the east of these features, 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to
rough seas will continue behind the front, which is forecast to 
dissipate tonight over the SW Caribbean offshore waters. 
Afterward, moderate to locally strong NE winds will remain in the 
western Caribbean, including the lee side of Cuba and the Windward
Passage through Sun night as high pressure develops across the 
northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. As the ridge shifts 
slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds will also develop 
offshore Colombia Sun evening and prevail through Tue night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east
Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France and associated large
northerly swells across the far NE waters.

A stationary front extends from 31N66W to the central Bahamas and
eastern Cuba. A low pressure is now embedded within the front,
which is located near 27N70W. Scattered heavy showers are seen 
mainly ahead of the frontal boundary to about 57W. High pressure
building behind the front is supporting fresh to strong northerly
winds and rough to very rough seas to the west of the front while
a broad surface ridge over the central Atlantic supports fresh to
strong southerlies ahead of the front and N of 25N. Rough seas to
10 ft are ahead of the front.  

In the east Atlantic, a cold front is just E of the Canary 
Islands, which extends to 21N23W to 23N38W. A reinforcing cold
front is approaching the Canary Islands. Strong to near gale 
northerly winds and rough to very rough seas are north of 21N and
east of 42W, with hazardous marine conditions in association with
this front depicted further in the aforementioned Special Marine 
section above. The rough seas in NE swell extend much farther S 
and W, reaching to 15N and as far W as 55W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to near gale force winds and 
rough seas on either side of the front, and N of 25N, will 
continue to affect the offshores from west to east through the Sun
night as the front transitions to a cold front today. Looking 
ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the NE Florida 
offshore waters Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE
to E winds and rough seas. These marine conditions are forecast 
to affect most of the waters N of 27N through the middle of the 
next week. 

$$
Ramos