000
AXNT20 KNHC 030504
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0503 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21.5W, south of 16N, 
moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 06.5N to 11N between 20W and 30W. Isolated scattered
convection is found from 06.5N to 12N between the wave axis and 
27W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned based on
tropical wave diagnostics and visible satellite imagery and is 
now along 59W, south of 19N. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 52W and 65W.

The western Caribbean tropical wave has moved to the eastern 
Pacific. More information about this wave can be found in the 
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean (TWDEP).

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16.5W and 
continues southwestward to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W 
to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 
12N between 28W and 51W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic southwestward
across the SE U.S. and the northern Gulf waters, supporting 
moderate or lighter winds and slight seas across most of the 
basin, except for locally N to NE fresh winds over the eastern Bay
of Campeche. Divergence aloft is supporting a few showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Bay of Campeche and 
Mexican coastal waters south of Tampico. Scattered afternoon 
thunderstorms across southern Florida are moving westward and 
reaching the coasts between Tampa Bay and Naples.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the basin 
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will 
pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week
due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. 
Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western 
half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected 
elsewhere E of 90W. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the 
islands and the Colombian Low has tightened behind a tropical 
wave moving into the eastern Pacific. This pressure gradient is
supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 8-10 
ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest
seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds 
and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail. Convection over the eastern Carribbean can be found in
the Tropical Waves section above. Scattered thunderstorms are 
along the monsoon trough S of 11N across the coastal waters of 
western Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Afternoon convection
over Cuba has drifted southward and is now affecting the waters
south of the island as it weakens. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will 
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then 
diminish slightly through the weekend. Expect winds to reach near-
gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in 
the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail 
over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms 
are expected across the SE Caribbean tonight through Fri night as 
an upper- level trough sinks across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front along about 31N, extends from 55W to a 1017 mb
low pressure near 31.5N73W, then becomes a surface trough that 
extends from 31N74W to Freeport, The Bahamas, northern adjacent 
waters. Low level convergence south of the front, and along the 
trough are aiding in the development of scattered moderate 
convection between the NW Bahamas and SE Florida, and S of the 
front to 27.5N between 44W and 67W. A 1033 mb high pressure system
centered NE of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 22N
and west of 35W to the SE Bahamas. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds 
and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 16N and east of 35W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough, remnants of a 
stationary front, extending from a 1017 mb low near 31N73W to 
Freeport northern adjacent waters, will gradually dissipate 
tonight while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. 
coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into 
central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support
moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or 
weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong winds each late 
afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of 
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. 

$$ 
KRV