239 
AXNT20 KNHC 071015
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1002 mb low pressure area, 
Invest AL94, is located near 25.5N62.5W. This non-tropical low 
pressure area located several hundred miles south-southeast of 
Bermuda is producing disorganized heavy showers and thunderstorms
N of 20N between 46W-61W. The low could still acquire some 
subtropical characteristics through tonight before upper-level 
winds increase on Sunday. The low is forecast to move generally 
eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic during 
the next couple of days and become absorbed by a new non-tropical 
low pressure system to its east early next week. Regardless, gale-
force winds are over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic 
and will continue through the weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html and the latest Tropical 
weather outlook at website: 
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/TWOAT.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW
to 10N20W where it transitions to ITCZ, which then continues to 
07N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 01N to 
14N between 22W and 43W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from from St Petersburg to the NW Gulf. A 
reinforcing cold front extends from 30N84W to 28N87W. Moderate 
NNE winds follow the fronts. Moderate NE winds are also over the 
Bay of Campeche offshore Yucatan. Slight seas to 3 ft are basin- 
wide.

For the forecast, the front will slowly shift across the basin 
into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind 
the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Invest6 AL94, south of Bermuda and E of the Bahamas, continue to 
disrupt the trade wind flow across the Caribbean basin. Also, a
broad low of 1008 mb prevail over the Nicaragua offshore waters, 
which is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms over the 
Honduras and Belize offshores. Similar convective activity is over
the E Caribbean E of a surface trough that extends across E 
Puerto Rico to 15N67W. A weak pressure gradient over the region 
due to the aforementioned features is supporting moderate or 
weaker winds and slight seas to 3 ft basin-wide.
 
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will 
result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to 
moderate seas, through early next week. Winds will strengthen over
the central Caribbean by Tuesday. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning and the potential for subtropical development of Invest 
AL94.

Aside from Invest AL94, a cold front extends from 31N28W to 
26N44W, then it stalls to 28N52W. A warm front continues from that
point to 30N62W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is ahead
of the cold front to 18W. Strong to near gale- force SW winds are
ahead of the front while fresh to strong NNW winds follow it. 
Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are N of 23N between 25W and 50W. South 
of Invest AL94, winds are fresh to strong from the SW, extending 
south to 20N between 50W and 68W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, Invest AL94 will drift slowly east-
northeastward. A second low may develop east of this low today. 
The lows will merge over the eastern waters late in the weekend, 
then shift east of the area by early next week. An area of strong 
to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 16
ft, will prevail north of the lows, impacting the waters mainly 
north of about 27N and east of 65W through tonight. Elsewhere, a 
weakening cold front has entered the waters between Florida and 
75W. The front will dissipate by Sun.

$$
ERA