000
AXNT20 KNHC 041630
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Aug 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1627 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W from 05N to 14.5N, 
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 17W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W from 05N to 19N,
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. There is no convection in association 
with this wave at this time. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 75.5W, from 
eastern Cuba to Colombia, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the Windward 
Passage. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W and continues 
southwestward to 07N46W. The ITCZ extends from 07N46W to 09N58.5W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 07N to 11N between
40.5W and 47W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 27N87W, supporting light
to gentle winds across most of the basin. Convection has 
dissipated in association with a surface trough in the Bay of 
Campeche, however, moderate E to SE winds continue over the area.
Seas are slight to 4 ft basin-wide. 
 
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, 
promoting gentle winds and slight seas into the upcoming weekend. 
Pulses of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each 
night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between the Bermuda High, of 1025 mb, centered near 
34N59W, and lower pressures over southern Caribbean due to the 
passage of a tropical wave and a low center over NW Colombia is 
supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin. 
Seas in this region are rough to 9 ft. Over the E and NW basin, 
moderate to locally fresh trades prevail along with moderate 
seas. Broad lift associated with an upper level trough and deep 
tropical moisture are aiding in the development of isolated to 
scattered moderate convection from 10N to 16N and west of 78.5W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America 
will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central 
basin into the weekend, with rough seas there, near gale force at 
times. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf 
of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or 
weaker winds ands seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper lever trough supports scattered moderate 
convection over the SW N Atlantic, including the Florida seaboard,
Great Bahama Bank, and Bahamas offshore waters W of 74W. 
Scattered moderate convection has also developed farther east from
21.5N to 29N between 65.5W and 71W. Similar convection is also 
present from 21N to 28N between 50W and 62W. The remainder of the 
basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge.

Moderate S to SW winds are offshore northern Florida to 72W. 
Fresh trades are present offshore Hispaniola, and in a zone from 
23.5N to 28N between 48W and 61W. In the far NE Atlantic, strong 
to near-gale N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident 
off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid to upper
level trough along the SE U.S. coast will keep scattered 
thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the 
Bahamas into Wed. Locally strong trades will continue pulsing 
offshore Hispaniola to near the Windward Passage. A westward 
moving trough will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into 
mid-week, then approach the Bahamas by late week before shifting 
west of the area, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and 
locally rough seas.

$$
KRV