000
AXNT20 KNHC 270601
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over 
Colombia will lead to the trade winds offshore of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at gale-force tonight through 
early Sat morning, and again Sat night into Sun morning. These 
winds are forecast to produce seas in the range of 12 to 15 ft 
north of Colombia. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters 
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has is near 34W from 11N 
southwestward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 10N 
between 30W and 41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 18N southwestward,
and moving westward near 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from the coast of Suriname to 13N between 50W
and 60W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from 19N southward
across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica into the eastern 
Pacific. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. It seems to be
enhancing scattered moderate convection near the East Pacific
monsoon trough near Costa Rica and western Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near Dakar, then extends southwestward to 05N30W. An ITCZ continues
from 05N30W to 03N40W and to 03N34W, then resumes from 03N37W to
just north of the Amazon River Delta at 02N49W. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is occurring south of the monsoon
trough near the coast of Guinea, Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone.
Widely scattered convection is noted up to 95 nm along either side
of the second ITCZ segment.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The northern tip of an East Pacific tropical wave is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche.
Convergent surface winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms
near the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a surface ridge running westward
from a 1020 mb high just offshore central Florida to near Tampico,
Mexico continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Light to gentle
winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are present at the northeastern and
east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2
to 4 ft are noted at the north-central and southeastern Gulf.
Moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, the ridge will persist over the Gulf region 
through midweek next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds 
will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except 
for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the 
northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to locally 
fresh SE to S winds across the northwestern Gulf through the 
weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink 
southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night and Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about a gale warning.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea.

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the
Atlantic and lower pressure at northern Colombia is sustaining
strong to near-gale ENE winds and 11 to 13 seas at the south- 
central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 7 to 
10 ft dominate the north-central and part of the southwestern
basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are found
at the Gulf of Honduras and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient is going to maintain fresh
to strong trades and rough to locally very rough seas into midweek
next week. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate 
to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly
through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to 
locally rough seas will briefly affect the Windward Passage late 
Sat afternoon into early Sun. Moderate or lighter winds and slight
to moderate seas are forecast across the remainder of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low southeast of Bermuda near 29N60W is triggering
scattered moderate convection near the northern portion of its 
associated trough, from 25N to 30N between 54W and 64W. Farther
southeast, divergent flow aloft is generating similar convection
from 22N to 26N between 46W and 52W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin. 

A broad subtropical ridge extending west-southwestward from a 
1030 mb high near 34N46W across 31N65W to beyond central Florida 
is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to E to SE winds and seas of 
3 to 5 ft, north of 27N and west of 35W. Farther south from 08N to
27N and west of 35W, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and 
5 to 7 ft seas are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic 
Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 
to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will persist 
across the western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong 
easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore 
Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, each 
late afternoon and night through Sat night. A nearly north-to-south
aligned surface trough located near 62W will shift westward across
the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning while 
dissipating. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing 
winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into 
the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

$$

Chan