000
AXNT20 KNHC 151008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: 
A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf
tonight, then move southeastward across the Gulf through Mon
night. Widespread strong to near-gale northerly winds will follow
the front, peaking to gale-force off the Texas coast tonight
through early Mon morning, then off the Mexico coast from the
Texas-Mexico border southward to near Veracruz Mon. Seas will peak
to 15 ft with the strongest winds. Winds off Tampico and Veracruz,
Mexico could gust up to storm-force on Mon. Both winds and seas
should gradually subside from north to south starting Mon evening.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N14W to 05N18W. 
The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 04S37W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 360 nm on either side of the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the western Gulf waters.

A broad surface ridge continues to dominate the eastern and 
central Gulf with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas.
Moderate with fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas prevail for 
the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf 
tonight, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and 
slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. 
Strong to gale-force N winds and building seas will follow the 
front. Gale conditions and rough to very rough seas will be 
possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico
on Sun night and Mon. The winds offshore Tampico and Veracruz may
attain gusts to storm-force. In the wake of the front, high 
pressure will build across the region into midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively fair trade-wind pattern continues across much of the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are 
present at the south-central basin. Moderate with fresh ENE winds
and moderate seas dominate the eastern, north- central and part 
of the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas
are present at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle with moderate NE to 
SE winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build westward across 
the west and central Atlantic today. The resulting pressure 
gradient will lead to fresh to strong trades and building seas  
from the waters E of the Lesser Antilles today, and to the 
eastern and central Caribbean including the passages on Mon. The 
pressure gradient will weaken by Tue as a cold front approaches 
the NW Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active along a 
trough extending southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N70W to
29N79W. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and moderate seas are 
found off northeastern Florida, and from 20N to 24N and west of 
50W, including the southeast Bahamas. For north of 24N and west of
50W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas in mixed 
moderate swells are noted. To the east and southeast from the 
Equator to 31N between 35W and 50W, moderate to fresh NE winds and
rough seas in large NE to E swell exist. For the tropical 
Atlantic from the Equator to 20N and west of 50W, fresh to strong
ENE to E winds and rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will 
build toward the Bahamas through the remainder of the weekend 
before it will retreat eastward early this week in response to the
next cold front. The front will move off the U.S. southeastern 
coast Mon evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N70W to 
the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to 
strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop over the NW 
forecast waters starting this evening ahead of the front. Fresh to
strong northwest winds will follow the front through Tue. To the 
south, rough seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the 
waters E of the Bahamas early next week before slowly subsiding 
during midweek. 

$$
ERA