000
AXNT20 KNHC 060443
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Aug 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 31W from 06N to 17N, moving west at 
around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 46W from 08N to 18N, moving west at 5 to
10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at 
this time. 

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 86W and S of
20N, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from eastern Panama to northeast Costa Rica. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 23N16W and continues 
southwestward to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to 06N57W. 
Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough
between 31W-44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over northern Florida. This 
pattern is supporting moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas over the 
western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes with 1-3 ft seas 
elsewhere. A mid-to-upper level trough is supporting scattered 
showers and thunderstorms active over the southeast Gulf and the
Florida peninsula.
 
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin, 
promoting gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas through the 
upcoming weekend and into early next week. Pulses of fresh winds 
will occur west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of 
Campeche each night, locally strong tonight, along with moderate 
seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in
the basin. 

Fresh to strong E trade winds and 8 to 9 ft seas persist across 
the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, between high 
pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South 
America. Moderate E winds and 3-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and 
relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue 
to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions
of the SW basin through Mon night. Over the weekend, the ridge N
of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the
pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-
force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to 
very rough at times this weekend with the increase in wind speed.
Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward 
Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds and seas will 
prevail elsewhere.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid-to-upper level trough extends from between Bermuda and 
eastern Cuba is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms 
offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are also active along a surface trough 
extending from 27N67W to 20N71W. Fresh E winds and rough seas are 
ongoing near the trough, from 23N to 26N between 65W and 672W. In
the far NE Atlantic, strong N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas
are evident off Morocco and in the passages of the Canary 
Islands. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, with gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid-to-upper 
level trough will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing
offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas through at 
least tonight. A westward moving surface trough moving N of 
Hispaniola tonight will approach the Bahamas Thu before shifting 
west of the area by late Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong 
winds and locally rough seas. Winds may pulse to fresh to strong 
at times from north of Hispaniola to the Windward Passage. 
Otherwise, weak ridging settles across the northern and central 
waters during the upcoming weekend and into early next week, 
bringing tranquil marine conditions.

$$
ERA