000
AXNT20 KNHC 082336
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Nov 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 995 mb low pressure is centered 
near 28N54W this afternoon, moving E-NE at 15 kt. A warm front
extends from 28N40W to 29.5N56W. Recent satellite scatterometer
data showed gale force NE to E winds occurring within 180 nm north
of the warm front, where buoy and altimeter data indicated seas of
10 to 14 ft in mixed NE swell. Across the south and eastern flanks
of the low, a broad zone of strong to gale force SW to S winds
from 18N to 28N between 46W and 57W. Buoy and altimeter data
suggest that seas in this gale area are 10 to 17 ft in mixed NE
and SW swell. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection
is occurring mostly to east of this deep-layered low pressure 
system, from 25N to 31N between 38W and 52W. The low will move 
east-northeastward, and accelerate, moving east of 35W by tue
night. An area of strong to gale- force winds, and rough to very 
rough seas, peaking near 14 ft, will prevail north of the low, 
impacting the waters mainly north of about 28N and east of 60W 
through this evening. The broad zone of strong to gale force SW
winds occurring with the low this afternoon will shift in synch
with the low through Tue, generating very rough to high seas to
around 20 ft before exiting the forecast area. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 09.5N13.5W to 
06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N22W to 03.5N48W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 04N to 06.5N east of 35W and from
03.5N to 10N between 35W and 53W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is located from the Florida Keys to near 22N90W
then continues as an ill-defined dying stationary front
northwestward to near 24N96W. Gentle N to NE winds prevail across
the basin east of 87W where seas are slight. Ridging extending
from the south-central U.S. and across the northern Gulf is 
promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the basin between 
87W and the frontal boundary, producing seas of 3 to 6 ft, highest
across the Texas coastal waters. A surface trough along the NE 
Mexico coastline north of 22N and extending inland into S Texas is
promoting scattered moderate convection north of 23N west of 94W.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary is expected to dissipate 
by late Mon. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail north of the
weakening boundary. High pressure will then build across the 
area, with winds diminishing to gentle to moderate. The next cold 
front will move into the NW Gulf on Thu and rapidly shift across 
the Gulf basin, moving SE of the area Fri. The front will be 
followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas to 9 ft. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Due to the gale-force low northeast of the Caribbean, the pressure
gradient across forecast waters remains weak, promoting only 
gentle to moderate NE to E winds across northwest sections and seas
1of 2-4 ft. A surface trough extends from 12N79W to 18N75W with 
scattered moderate occurring from 16N-18N between 72W-79W.
Another surface trough is along about 68W. E of this feature
gentle to moderate SE to S winds are bringing tropical moisture
into the basin, and converging to the SE of another surface trough
across the NE Caribbean and into the Atlantic, where scattered to
numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring over 
the Leeward Islands adjacent waters from 15N to 19N between 
59W and 66W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in this area, with moderate NE
swell moving through the eastern Caribbean Passages. Light winds
and slight seas prevail elsewhere.
 
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue across 
the basin and  result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along 
with slight to moderate seas, through Mon. Winds will strengthen 
over the central Caribbean by Tuesday and then prevail through the
week. A cold front may enter the NW Caribbean Fri, followed by 
moderate to fresh winds and building seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning. To the southeast of the SW gales associated with the low
center, a trough extends from the NE Caribbean near 17.5N65W
northeastward to 23N51W. The broad zone of SW to S gales prevail
between this trough and the low center. Along and within 150 nm S
of the trough, scattered moderate isolated strong convection
prevails. Fresh to locally strong SW to W winds generally prevail
across this area N of 17N between 43W and 60W. Seas are 6 to 10 ft
there in N-NE swell. To the W of the low, a weak cold front
extends from Bermuda to the Florida Keys, and has become nearly
stationary across the Bahamas and Keys. 
Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 5 to 9 ft in E swell
cover these waters. SE of the front winds are light and variable,
with NE swell from the gale center producing seas of 6 to 10 ft.

Aside from the gale-force low center, a stationary front begins 
at 28N40W to 21N33W, where it transitions to a cold front to 
31N14W. NW winds are fresh to strong with seas 8-14 ft north of 
26N east of 30W. Additionally, large N swell continues north of 
25N between 30W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
from 23N to 27N between 20W and 30W. Elsewhere winds are moderate 
or weaker with seas 3-7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the large gale-force low that has 
impacted the regional waters the past several days has shifted 
east 55W. Gale-force winds NW of the low impacting the waters N 
of 29N and E of 60W will shift east of the area by tonight. Strong
to near gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas near 15 
ft, cover the remainder of the waters east of 60W. These winds and
seas will decrease from west to east through midweek as the low 
shifts further E of the forecast waters. Elsewhere, a cold front 
extends from 31N66W to the NW Bahamas then stationary to the 
Florida Keys. The stationary portion of the front will dissipate 
by Mon while the cold front will move eastward over the waters N 
of 25N through the middle of the week. Another, stronger, cold 
front will enter the NW waters the end of the week, ushering in 
fresh to strong winds and building seas.

$$
Stripling