803 
AXNT20 KNHC 122112
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 30W S of 15N, 
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 10N between 30W and 33W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W S of 16N. 
It is moving westward near 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed 
in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 60W south of 16N. It is moving 
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is 
presently occurring near this wave.

The two previous waves in the Caribbean have merged. The axis of
the merged tropical wave is near 77W south of 18N, moving 
westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is presently 
occurring near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W 
and extends southwestward to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W
to 06N29W. It resumes near 06N31W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 11W and 
23W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N
between 36W and 46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. A 1007 mb low is
centered over the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between the area
of high pressure and the low is supporting fresh to strong winds
over the waters S of 25N and W of 87W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft
range over these waters. Light winds, and seas of 2 ft, are in 
the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity 
has increased a little near a broad area of low pressure located 
over the Bay of Campeche near 20.5N95W. Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development 
before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday 
or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf 
on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal 
boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be 
marginally conducive for any development. The pressure gradient 
between the low pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will 
support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas 
through Sun. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the waters W of 85W, as well as
over the waters S of 15N between 66W and 75W. Seas over these
waters are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas
of 3-6 ft, prevail elsewhere.
 
For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through Sun.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the 
northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 85W, including the Gulf of 
Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active showers and 
thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent 
Yucatan waters through early Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 24N69W to 20N75W. Scattered
convection is SE of the trough. The remainder of the discussion
waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1024
mb high near 33N45W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, 
generally prevail over the discussion waters. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the
area through early next week. This pattern will support moderate 
E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow 
elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW 
waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak 
frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong 
winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near 
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. 

$$
AL