000
AXNT20 KNHC 291428
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1420 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, 
south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is found from 03N-08N between 25W-32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 61W, south of
14N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
found along the wave axis from 06N-10N between 59W-61W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 69W, south of
20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at 
this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues 
southwestward to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 05N40W to
06N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves 
described above, no significant convection is present at this 
time.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

1019 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf near
28N86W. A trough is over the Bay of Campeche in the far southwest
Gulf along 92W south of 22N. Moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas are noted over the western Gulf with gentle breezes and 1 to
3 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Various observations over southern
Mexico including Veracruz are showing minor limitations to
visibility due to haze. 

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region while
a weak cold front is forecast to reach the NE Gulf late tonight 
into Tue with little impact in winds and seas. Fresh to locally 
strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula 
nightly through Fri night due to local effects associated with a 
thermal trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western
half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue 
morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate 
or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light 
to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh
to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central 
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds 
and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh 
easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail. A few thunderstorms are active across
Trinidad associated with a tropical wave moving into the Windward
Islands. No significant convection is evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the basin 
combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, 
reaching near-gale speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate 
or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin 
during the next several days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low centered north of the Leeward Islands near
24N65W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain
active within 180 nm southeast of an associated surface trough
extending from 26N62W to 21N67W. The remainder of the Atlantic
discussion area is dominated by the subtropical ridge north of
20N, interrupted only by a surface trough along roughly 45W from
20N to 25N. This pattern is supporting moderate winds and 3-5 ft
seas north of 20N, east of 35W. It is also supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds farther south over the deep tropics east of 35W
with 5-7 ft seas, except near 8 ft southeast of Barbados. In the 
far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and
seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 18N and east of 20W. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere
east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate
the forecast area through today. While most of the basin will 
experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of 
Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for 
the next several days. A weak cold front will push off of the SE 
United States coast today and extend from 31N72W to the central 
Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the front is anticipated 
to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form
along the western end of the frontal system in the next day or 
two. Gradual development is possible while the system drifts 
southward and then westward before environmental conditions become
less conducive later this week.

$$
Christensen