001 
AXNT20 KNHC 021737
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Feb 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A stationary front in the 
central Atlantic extends from 31N54W southwestward through Puerto 
Rico and into the south-central Caribbean. Widespread very rough 
seas in N to NW swell cover the northwest tropical Atlantic in the
wake of the front, and locally very rough seas in mixed swell are
noted to the east of the front north of 28N. Peak seas of 18 to 
24 ft are expected north of 26N and east of 71W through late 
tonight. Seas in excess of 12 ft will slowly subside from west to 
east tonight through Wed morning, with seas falling below 8 ft by 
Thu morning. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and 
extends to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01N36W to 
01.5N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 
06N east of 24W, and from 02N to 04N between 33W and 37W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1030 mb high is centered over the northwest Gulf near 28N92.5W,
and ridging extends over the basin. Recent scatterometer satellite
data show moderate to fresh S to SE winds are occurring around 
the periphery of the high in the southwest Gulf, with locally 
strong winds noted in the south-central Bay of Campeche. Seas in 
this region range from 4 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NW to NE winds
and 4 to 7 ft seas are occurring in the eastern Gulf east of 88W,
and locally rough seas near 8 ft are found in the Yucatan 
Channel. Gentle winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere in 
the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure located over the NW Gulf will 
move toward the NE Gulf tonight allowing a fresh to strong 
southerly return flow to develop over the western Gulf. These 
winds will persist through late Tue. The next cold front will 
enter the NW Gulf by early Wed morning, then sweep southward 
across the Gulf region through Thu evening. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A stalled front extends from Puerto Rico through the south- 
central Caribbean, and recent scatterometer satellite data show 
widespread fresh to strong N winds are occurring in the wake of 
the front over the western and central basin, including through 
the passages. Altimeter satellite data show widespread rough seas 
over 8 ft are occurring in this region, with very rough seas of 12
to 13 ft noted offshore of northwestern Colombia and Panama. In 
the eastern Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh E to SE and 3 to 
5 ft seas prevail. To the east of the Lesser Antilles, rough seas 
in E swell are slowly subsiding. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front is helping 
to induce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Fresh 
to strong N winds and rough seas following the front are forecast 
to dissipate by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will persist in 
the central Caribbean through Wed, with winds gradually veering to
the E as a high pressure settles N of area. On Thu, another cold 
front is expected to reach the NW Caribbean bringing fresh to 
strong N winds and building seas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the 
significant swell event occurring over portions of the northwest 
tropical Atlantic. 

A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N54W 
southwestward through Puerto Rico, and recent scatterometer 
satellite data show strong to near-gale S to SW winds are 
occurring east of the front, north of 25N. Fresh to locally strong
W to NW winds are occurring in the wake of the front, north of 
the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, a 1026 mb high centered near 
30.5N33.5W extends ridging through much of the open Atlantic, 
supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds along the 
periphery of the high, generally south of 22.5N. Seas of 8 to 10 
ft in E swell prevail in this region. Mainly gentle winds are 
occurring near the center of the high pressure. Farther east, a 
cold front is approaching northwest Africa, and moderate to 
locally fresh N to NW winds are occurring north of 25N. Rough seas
in NW swell accompany these winds, with seas in excess of 12 ft 
noted north of 30N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the north part of the 
aforementioned front in the central Atlantic will continue to move
slowly eastward while the southern part of it will remain nearly 
stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward
Islands through early Wed, then the front will begin to lift N 
late on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE 
Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to strong winds and 
building seas is expected with the next cold front. Mariners are 
urged to remain cautious through today and stay up to date with 
the latest forecasts. 

$$
ADAMS