000
AXNT20 KNHC 192257
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Feb 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 03N11W to 02N50W along the coast of Brazil. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed 
from 04N southward east of 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The combination of surface ridging over the E Gulf and lower 
pressure over Mexico is resulting in a pressure gradient that is 
supporting moderate to fresh S to SE winds basin-wide. Seas are 
slight east of 86W and moderate elsewhere. The S flow in the 
W Gulf is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in S Mexico 
northward. Aside from lower visibility from the smoke mainly over
the SW portion of the basin, dense fog is ongoing over the N Gulf
waters in the coastal waters of W Louisiana and the upper Texas
coast. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds 
and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf 
through Fri. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-
central basin, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and
night through Fri as a trough develops daily over the region. A 
strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf this weekend 
and shift across the basin through early next week. Gale force 
winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Veracruz 
Sun and Sun night. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and 
rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad subtropical ridge centered southeast of Bermuda continues
to affect the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong NE to E 
trades and rough seas in the S-central and portions of the SW 
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E trades and moderate seas are found
in the N-central and E Caribbean. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh  
SE winds and seas to 6 ft are ongoing.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to 
the north and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade
winds will prevail in the south-central Caribbean through this 
weekend. Winds may reach near-gale force each night offshore of 
northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near and to the 
west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds and 
occasionally rough seas will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras into 
early Sun. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected
over the rest of the Caribbean basin through the forecast period.
Rough seas will develop east of the Lesser Antilles tonight into 
the weekend as N swell progresses through the central tropical 
Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of both the
Bermuda and Azores Highs, which extend a ridge across the 
tropical Atlantic waters. Between both ridges, a stationary front
extends from 31N39W to 24N70W. Over the SW North Atlantic waters,
winds are mainly moderate or weaker, however rough seas to 11 ft 
prevails east of 65W to about 34W. Over the far E subtropical 
Atlantic, winds are fresh to locally strong, including the Canary 
Islands, and seas are 5 to 8 ft. Over the tropical Atlantic, 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds are present west of 35W. Moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas east of 65W will subside
from west to east through early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to 
locally fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of northern 
Florida into this weekend. Moderate or weaker winds are expected 
elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of 
the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with increasing winds and rapidly 
building seas expected in the wake of the front through early next
week. 

$$
Levine/Nepaul/Landsea