AXNT20 KNHC 261015
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located N of the Caribbean
Sea combined with the Colombian low will support minimal gale
force winds just north of Colombia during the overnight and early
morning hours through early Wed morning. Gale conditions are
possible again Fri and Sat night. Wave heights of 10-14 ft are
expected tonight into early Wed morning within the area of the
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front currently located over
the NW Gulf will stall there today. A reinforcing cold front will
reach the stationary front by Wed morning, and the combined front
will quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, with gales
developing over W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed
through Thu. Seas are forecast to build to 10-14 ft over the SW
Gulf by early Thu morning.
Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S
coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies
north of the forecast region. Strong gale force winds and very large
seas are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night, mainly
N of 27N. Seas as high as 20 to 30 ft are expected across the western
Atlantic, particularly N of 28N between 60W and 70W by Thu night,
with seas of 12 ft reaching the waters just E of the NW and central
Bahamas. These hazardous marine conditions will dominate the central
Atlantic by Fri night.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N13W to
05N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N16W to 02N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N-06N between 20W-51W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
about gale force winds in the W-central and SW Gulf.
A cold front currently located over the far NW Gulf will stall
there today. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a ridge that
extends westward across Florida into the Gulf. Recent scatterometer
data provided observations of mainly gentle to moderate southerly
winds across the area.
Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and
early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Please, refer to
the Special Features section above for details. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong
over the Gulf of Honduras through tonight, with seas building to
Shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds flow is seen across
the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Patches
of low level moisture with possible light showers, carried by the
trade winds, continue to affect parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.
A weakening frontal boundary will reach the northern Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today bringing cloudiness and an increase
in shower activity. In fact, satellite imagery shows the band of
moisture associated with this front over the northern coast of
A strong cold front will reach western Cuba and the NW Caribbean
on Thu, followed by fresh to strong N-NE winds. The front will
extend from eastern Cuba northern Belize by Thu night. At that
time, fresh to strong NE winds are forecast in the wake of the
front and across the Windward passage. N swell will propagate
into the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters
today through Thu.
A Gale Warning has been issued in association with the next cold
front forecast to move off the SE U.S coast Wed night. Please,
refer to the Special Features section above for details.
A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic from
31N39W to 23N50W to 19N68W. Fresh to strong winds are noted on
either side of the front N of 26N based on recent satellite derived
wind data. Convection has increase ahead of the front N of 26N.
This system is forecast to move southward reaching the northern
Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of a ridge, anchored by a high pressure of 1028 mb located just N
of the Madeira Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are along the
southern periphery of the ridge. Winds increase to moderate to
fresh between the Canary Islands and the W coast of Africa as well
as from 20N-25N E of 28W.