000
AXNT20 KNHC 052158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Aug 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 29W from 06N to 17N, moving west at 
around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from
08N to 13N between 25W and 32W. 

A tropical wave is along 44W from 08N to 18N, moving west at 5 to
10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at 
this time. 

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 84W, and 
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from eastern Panama to northeast Costa Rica. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 23N16W and continues 
southwestward to 09N30W to 06N45W. The ITCZ extends from 06N45W 
to 08N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N 
between 35W and 45W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W. A trough is
parallel to the coast of Veracruz in the southwest Gulf. This
pattern is supporting moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas over the
western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes with 1-3 ft seas
elsewhere. A mid- and upper- level trough is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms active over the southeast Gulf and the 
west- central Gulf.
 
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting
gentle to occasionally moderate winds, and slight seas through
the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Pulses of fresh 
winds will occur west of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally
strong tonight, along with moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in
the basin. 

Fresh to strong E trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas persist across 
the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, between high 
pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South 
America. Moderate E winds and 3-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will
continue to support strong trades in the south-central basin,
and as the gradient tightenings into the weekend and into early
next week, winds will increase to near gale. Rough seas will 
prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend. 
Fresh winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward 
Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds and seas will 
prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid- and upper-level trough between Bermuda and eastern Cuba is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore Florida 
and in the vicinity of the Bahamas. A few showers and
thunderstorms are also active along a surface trough extending 
from 26N66W to 20N68W. Fresh E winds and rough seas are ongoing on
the northern end of this trough, specifically from 24N to 26N
between 62W and 67W. In the far NE Atlantic, strong to near- gale
N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and
in the passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, surface ridging
prevails, with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid- and upper-
level trough along the SE U.S. coast will keep scattered 
thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the 
Bahamas through at least tonight. A westward moving surface trough
will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into tonight, then 
approach the Bahamas Thu before shifting west of the area by late 
Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough 
seas. Winds may pulse to fresh to strong at times from north of 
Hispaniola to the Windward Passage. Otherwise, weak ridging 
settles across the northern and central waters during the upcoming
weekend and into early next week, bringing tranquil marine 
conditions. 

$$
Christensen