000
AXNT20 KNHC 122205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed May 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave that was previously analyzed near 31W is now
analyzed near 35W/36W, from 02N to 14N. Most of the nearby
convection is associated with the ITCZ as described below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends 
from 06N18W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the
coast of Africa between 10W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection
is present S of 02N between 22W and the coast of Brazil. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends from central Florida to just N of the
Tampa Bay area into 1013 mb low pressure in the NE Gulf analyzed
near 29N87W. The cold front then continues S-SW to the eastern Bay
of Campeche near 19N92W. Convection is present S of the front over
the Florida Peninsula as indicated by regional radar and satellite
imagery. A small cluster of convection is also noted over the Gulf
just ahead of the front from 25N to 26N. Fresh NW winds and 4-6 ft
seas are found offshore and along the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, 
with mainly gentle to moderate N-NE winds elsewhere behind the 
front, and seas of primarily 2-4 ft. Light to gentle mainly S-SW 
winds and seas of 2 ft or less are prevalent ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will stall and dissipate on
Wed. Winds will be generally moderate or weaker on either side of
the front. High pressure and quiescent conditions will dominate 
on Wed and Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the 
NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. SE winds 
are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western 
half of the basin this weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong 
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central to
southwest Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes 
and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central 
and eastern Caribbean from 11N to 18N, along with 4-7 ft seas. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are 
prevalent across the remainder of the waters including the
majority of the western Caribbean. No significant convection is
noted in the basin, except just offshore Panama near the monsoon
trough extending along 09N/10N from the eastern Pacific Ocean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to 
strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the weekend, 
with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the 
remainder of forecast waters through Sun night, pulsing to strong 
in the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun night. Large E swell with 
rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from midweek
through the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extending from 31N70W to central Florida with fresh
to strong NE-E winds and 5-9 ft seas in N-NE swell behind/N of the
front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found 
across a rather large area of the SW N Atlantic offshore waters
both behind and within about 240 nm ahead/SE of the front. Seas
are 3-5 ft N of 19N and ahead of the front to 55W, along with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.

The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence 
of a broad ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high center located well N
of the discussion waters to the NW-N of the Azores. A belt of
fresh to locally strong N-NE winds extends from the coast of
Africa from about 14N to 22N through the Cabo Verde Islands to
much of the waters from 08N to 19N to the E of the Caribbean. Seas
are mainly 6-9 ft across this area. Mainly moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the remainder of the 
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front in the SW N Atlantic
offshore waters will stall Wed morning then lift north of the 
area by Thu morning. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected 
west of the front with scattered showers and thunderstorms along 
the front. Another weak cold front will move off the NE Florida 
coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, from 
31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning, then E of the area Sun. Fresh to 
strong S winds are expected N of 27N ahead of the front. 

$$
Lewitsky