000
AXNT20 KNHC 272127
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jul 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 
27.5W, extending from 089N to 18N, and moving westward at around 
15 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are noted near the
wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57.5W, extending from 08N to 
20N, and moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant 
convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave.

A tropical wave that was previously analyzed in the central 
Caribbean with axis along 71.5W is no longer discernible at either
the lower or mid levels. 

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis near 81.5W,
from 09N to 18N, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 11N
between 77W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16W and 
continues to 1014 mb low pressure near 11N31.5W to 10N39W to
13N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present
near the coast of Africa, from 06N to 14N between Africa and 24W.
Some isolated clusters of moderate convection are near the low.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. 
extends southwestward to northern Florida, and scattered showers 
and thunderstorms from 25N to 29N and east of 87W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted near and just offshore of Tampico,
Mexico. A high pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 25.5N91W and 
is supporting light to gentle variable winds from the northwest to
southeast of the high, with moderate anticyclonic winds around the
outer periphery closer to the coasts. Seas are 1 to 2 ft near the
high and the northwest to southeast ridging, and 2 to 4 ft around
the outer periphery.

For the forecast, high pressure remaining over the central Gulf 
will lead toward generally quiescent conditions for the next 
several days. The exception is NE fresh winds just northwest of 
the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the weekend. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will continue during the next couple of 
days over the NE Gulf due to an approaching weak cold front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
on any convection.

Atlantic ridging dominates north of the basin with 1010 mb low
pressure analyzed along the northern coast of Colombia at
10N75.5W. The pressure gradient between the two supports moderate
to fresh trades from 11N to 18N between 68W and 80W in the central
Caribbean, locally strong near Colombia, along with 5 to 7 ft
seas. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of basin,
with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, an increasing pressure gradient between the 
Colombian Low and high pressure north of the Caribbean will boost 
trades to strong over the S central Caribbean from tonight through
the end of the week. Additionally, trades over the Gulf of 
Honduras will increase to fresh starting Wednesday night. A 
tropical wave moving through the E Caribbean will enhance showers 
and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extending from a 1024 mb center of high pressure 
near 31.5N46 extends southwestward to across the Central Bahamas
to the Straits of Florida. A stalled out frontal boundary is
located from west-northwest of Bermuda to 1008 mb low pressure at
31.5N77W to the South Carolina Lowcountry. Troughing is ahead of
this boundary over the discussion waters, analyzed from 31N68W to
27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are found north of 27N between
60W and 77W, along with 5 to 7 ft seas and isolated to scattered
moderate to strong convection. A mid to upper level low is to the
southeast, supporting scattered moderate isolated strong
convection from 22N to 28N between 54W and 64W. No other
significant convection is noted across the basin. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are noted around the ridging from the Canary
and Madeira Islands southwestward to offshore Africa and the
waters north of the monsoon trough to about 23N and to the east of
55W. Seas are mainly 5 to locally 8 ft across these waters. Winds
are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters,
except locally fresh near northern Hispaniola, with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge associated with the 
Bermuda High will remain farther south than usual - near 25N - 
through Fri. This in combination with a stationary front offshore 
of the Carolinas is forcing fresh to strong SW winds and scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of 27N west of 63W for the next 
several days. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop just 
north of Hispaniola from Wed through the weekend. 

$$
Lewitsky