000
AXNT20 KNHC 031043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jan 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning East of 35W: The tight pressure 
gradient between a complex low pressure system north of Madeira 
and a strong high pressure over Libya and Egypt results in strong
to gale-force winds in the Meteo-France Agadir High Seas Marine 
Zone, forecast to continue through 03/18z. Very rough seas are
occurring in these waters. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas 
Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N21W to 04N36W and to 00N50W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 16N between 10W and 
36W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1017 mb has shifted to the Great Bahama Bank and
low pressure is starting to establish basin-wide preceding the
next cold front. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned
high pressure and lower pressures preceding the next cold front over
the southern United States support fresh to locally strong SW 
winds north of 26N and west of 85W. The seas in these waters are 
4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate 
seas will continues over the northern Gulf waters this morning as 
a warm front associated with a low pressure system lifts 
northward. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf this 
afternoon and progress over the central basin through Sun, 
supporting moderate to locally fresh N winds in the wake of the 
front. High pressure will settle over the basin early next week, 
leading to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough extends across the Windward Passage to the
southern Jamaica adjacent waters, which continues to generate a 
few showers in this region. A 1018 mb high over the Great Bahama
Bank and a second high of 1018 mb SE of Bermuda continue to
support moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft in 
the central and SE Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Venezuela. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are 
expected over the central and southeastern Caribbean into early 
Mon as a broad subtropical ridge prevails to the north. Winds may 
pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela through this 
evening. Looking ahead, fresh NE winds are forecast to develop 
near the Greater Antilles through the Atlantic passages early next
week and prevail through Wed night as high pressure builds to the
north. Fresh to strong NE winds will also resume off Colombia Wed
evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on a 
Meteo-France Gale Warning.

Surface high pressure and associated ridging dominates the SW N
Atlantic waters and the central subtropical Atlantic waters. In
between these centers of high pressure, a stationary front extends
from 31N48W to 22N59W where a surface trough continues SW to the
Virgin Islands. Winds and seas are mainly moderate or weaker over
the subtropical waters W of 30W. In the far NE Atlantic, a large 
storm system is producing fresh to near gale-force W to NW winds  
north of 25N and east of 30W. Rough to very rough seas are 
affecting these waters. Farther south, moderate NE to E winds and
seas of 4-7 ft are found in the trade waters between Africa and 
the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh W winds 
are expected north of 29N through this morning as a low pressure 
system emerges off the coast of the Mid Atlantic states and moves 
eastward. Residual rough seas in NW swell occurring north of 29N 
between 61W and 55W will subside through this morning. Fresh to 
strong SW winds will develop over the NW subtropical Atlantic 
offshores today ahead of the low pressure system moving through 
the SE U.S. Localized near-gale force winds will be possible 
offshore of northern Florida tonight, and rough seas are expected 
near and to the east of these winds. A cold front is slated to 
push offshore of the SE U.S. tonight into Sun and progress 
eastward through early next week, supporting fresh to strong SW 
winds and rough seas ahead of the front, and fresh to locally 
strong N to NW winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. 
Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the region early 
next week. 

$$
Ramos