000
AXNT20 KNHC 280548
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Dec 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: 
A strong cold front will reach the northwestern Gulf early Mon
morning and move quickly southeastward, then depart the Gulf Tue
night. Fresh to near gale-force NW to NE winds behind the front
will spread southward from the northwestern and north-central Gulf
to the Bay of Campeche and near the Yucatan Peninsula along with
rough to very rough seas. These winds are going to reach gale-
force offshore from Tampico around noon Mon, then progress to near
Veracruz by late Mon night. Seas under the strongest winds will
peak between 14 and 18 ft. Conditions should improve from north 
to south Tue into Wed.

Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell: 
Persistent large NW swell will maintain 12 to 14 ft seas north of
27N between 41W and 63W through Sun morning. Then, a reinforcing
set of large NW swell will cause seas rising to between 12 and 17
ft, and spreading southward to 25N by early Sun afternoon.
Afterward, expect this area of rough to very rough seas to
gradually shift eastward through midweek.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 
information on both events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of 
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, then runs southwestward to 05N17W. An 
ITCZ extends westward from 05N17W through 03N35W to offshore of
Suriname at 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
near and up to 50 nm north of the ITCZ west of 35W, and near the
ITCZ and monsoon from 03N to 05N between 10W and 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above on an upcoming 
Gale Warning.

A diurnal surface trough is triggering scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise,
a 1019 mb high over the northeastern Gulf is dominating much of 
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are present across 
the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds with seas at 2
to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the 
Gulf through late Sun. The next cold front is expected to enter 
the northwestern Gulf early Mon, followed by fresh to near-gale
force northerly winds and very rough seas, except gale conditions
are expected in the far west central and southwestern Gulf by Mon
afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin through 
midweek as high pressure builds over the region following the 
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad Atlantic Ridge continues to support a trade-wind pattern
across much of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough embedded 
within the trades is causing widely scattered showers from the 
Gulf of Honduras eastward to near Jamaica. Fresh to strong ENE
winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are noted at the south-central basin.
Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the
north-central and part of the southwestern basin. Gentle to
moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft 
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic Ridge 
and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds off 
Colombia through mid week, with moderate to fresh trade winds 
elsewhere. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Tue 
night, reach from central Cuba to Belize by late Wed, and from 
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section at the beginning for details on 
the ongoing significant swell.

A reinforcing cold front curves westward from east of Bermuda
across 31N59W to beyond 31N78W. Farther south and east, another 
cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
through 31N42W to 27N51W, then continues westward as a stationary
front to 27N70W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found
up to 50 nm along either side of both boundaries. At the eastern
Atlantic, a surface trough stretches northeastward from 23N41W to
beyond 31N33W. Convergent southerly winds east of the trough axis
are combining with strong divergent flow aloft to trigger
scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 27W and 35W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

Other than the very rough seas area mentioned in the Special
Features section, moderate to strong with locally near-gale force
SW to NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in large NW swell are 
present north of 23N between 40W and 72W. Farther west, gentle to 
moderate W to NW winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate NW to N 
swell exist north of 23N and west of 72W. For north of 23N between
35W and 40W, gentle to moderate SW to W winds and seas at 6 to 8 
ft in moderate NW swell are noted. For the tropical Atlantic from 
13N to 23N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, light to 
gentle winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate NW to N swell are 
evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed 
moderate to large swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong to near-gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas will follow the aforementioned cold front 
as it moves to the east of 35W by early Mon, leaving a trailing 
stationary front to dissipate along 21N. Large N swell will also 
follow this front, mixing with large swell already covering the 
area north of 22N and east of 70W. A third cold front will move 
off the northeastern Florida coast Mon night, and will reach from
Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by late Tue, from 31N60W to 
central Cuba by late Wed, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Thu 
night. 

$$

Chan