415 
AXNT20 KNHC 241734
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy 
rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur over the southern 
Caribbean and into Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras through at
least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the 
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical 
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast 
to observe the highest amounts of rain today, while northeastern 
Nicaragua and Honduras are expected to observe their rainfall 
maxima on Wednesday.

Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 30W, south of 16N, moving 
westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07-10N between 29-31W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 66W from SE Puerto Rico southward to central Venezuela, 
moving westward at 20-25 kt. Some shower activity is near the 
wave axis.

Another tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis 
along 76W, south of 19N, moving quickly westward at about 25 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is found immediately along the wave
axis. This wave is forecast to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and 
Costa Rica on Wed, increasing the likelihood of showers and 
thunderstorms there.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 13N17W, then continues southwestward to 07N21W and 
then west-northwestward to 08N32W. The ITCZ extends from 08N32W to
the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 06N to 10N between 15W and 21W, as well as south 
of 10N and west of 50W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is observed S of 13N and
W of 80W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A diffluent pattern aloft and weak upper level shortwave are 
helping to induce scattered moderate convection over the Gulf N of
25N between 87-91W. To the southwest, a surface trough is 
analyzed paralleling the Mexican coast from the Bay of Campeche to
near the US-Mexico border. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are seen S of 24N and W of 94W. Moderate to fresh E
winds prevail across much of the Gulf E of 90W, while moderate or
weaker winds prevail W of 90W. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail E of 90W,
with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from the SW N Atlantic waters
will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and 
evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula 
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops 
and tracks westward across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE 
winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere 
through Sat night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. 

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh 
to strong E winds over the central and eastern Caribbean. These 
winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian Low. Moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. Elsewhere, a
weak upper level shortwave is leading to the development of
scattered moderate convection in the NW Caribbean, including the
Yucatan Channel. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean due to the E 
Pacific monsoon, the Colombian low and the passage of tropical 
waves will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most 
of the central and and SW Caribbean through Sat night. Winds are 
expected to reach near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela Thu late afternoon and Thu night. Moderate to rough seas
are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh 
winds and moderate seas will prevail. By late Fri, winds may 
increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due to the 
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a tropical wave 
that will be moving across Central America. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a low located north 
of the forecast area near 36N50W to near 26N73W. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 23-30N between 57-70W, also
enhanced by an upper-level low. High pressure of 1031 mb located 
SW of the Azores near 34N35W dominates the remainder of the 
forecast area. Scatterometer and altimeter data indicate fresh 
to strong trades and 7-9 ft seas over the tropical Atlantic S of 
20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, and N of 20N E of 30W, 
including between the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh E Winds 
prevail N of 20N between 30-45W, along with 4-7 ft seas. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough persists over the 
forecast waters, and extends southwestward from 31N66W to the 
central Bahamas offshore waters near 25N72W. The trough will 
dissipate today, and the Atlantic ridge will strengthen. Under 
this weather pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate
seas are expected south of 25N through the weekend, with gentle 
to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E 
winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed through Fri night.

$$
Adams