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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 192340

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2318 UTC.


Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...
A squall line continues to move across the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico. A cold front follows the front from central Florida to 
just off the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds to 
gale force accompany the squall line and front, impacting much of 
the north central and northeast Gulf north of 23N and within 90 nm
east of the front. Seas are building to 9 to 13 ft over the 
northeast Gulf as well. Winds and seas will diminish below gale 
force later this evening as the front moves out of the Gulf. 
Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning...
Southerly winds are minimal gale force off the coast of northeast
Florida, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the coast 
tonight. As the front continues moving eastward, gale force
southerly winds will continue west of 78W and diminish by 
Saturday afternoon. Seas will build to 14 ft in the area of gale 
force winds through the evening, then gradually subside overnight 
as winds diminish. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast
at website for more


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N14W 
to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02S27W to the coast 
of Brazil near 05S36W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong 
convection is observed moving south of the monsoon trough from
05N-03S between 12W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is also 
noted north of the ITCZ from 01S to 05S between 31W-36W.


As of 2100 UTC, The strong squall line continues to move across 
the southeast Gulf and stretching into the northwest Caribbean. 
The cold front follows behind the squall line with another, albeit
less severe, line of showers and thunderstorms moving right along
the front. The front enters the Gulf right off the coast of 
Clearwater, Florida to the northeast Yucatan coast. The squall 
line is seen stretching from Fort Myers, Florida to the Caribbean.
See above for more information on the gale warning in the Gulf. 
Otherwise, a 1021 mb high is off Mexican coast near 21N96W with 
ridging across the western and central Gulf. Cold air cumulus 
follows the cold front, but otherwise clear conditions are seen 
across the western half of the basin. 

The cold front will exit the Gulf tonight and winds will quickly 
subside on Saturday. Weak high pressure will subsequently continue 
building over the Gulf promoting quiescent conditions from Sunday
through Wednesday. 


As of 2100 UTC, the squall line impacting the southeastern Gulf 
is now entering the northwest Caribbean just to the north of 
Cozumel, Mexico. Frequent lightning and gusty winds are expected 
with this squall line. Ahead of the strong cold front approaching 
the Caribbean, gentle to moderate southerly winds are seen in the 
northwest basin. Streamer showers can be seen across this area 
ahead of the squall line which is moving across Jamaica and Cuba. 
In the central and eastern Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades are
seen with low-topped showers moving across the Lesser Antilles 
and south of Puerto Rico. Local observations and satellite imagery
also show areas of smoke north of Honduras. Seas are 4 to 6 ft 
overall, except to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 8 to 10 ft off

A cold front, strong for this time of year, will reach the 
Yucatan Channel by this evening and push to the Gulf of Honduras 
Saturday before dissipating on Sunday. Numerous showers and 
scattered thunderstorms, some may be severe, will precede the 
front this evening through early Saturday. The Bermuda High will 
weaken over the next few days, causing trades to diminish through 
Wednesday night. No significant long-period swell are anticipated
to reach the tropical North Atlantic zones through at least
Wednesday night. 


Gale force winds are seen off the northeast Florida coast in
response to an approaching cold front over north-central Florida.
As of 2100 UTC, a squall line is seen from 31N79W to 27N80W. The
second squall line is beginning to enter the Atlantic just to the
south of Daytona Beach, Florida. Farther east of the gale winds, 
a cold front enters the waters near 31N39W and stretches to the 
southwest to 26N47W. Showers with some embedded thunderstorms are 
seen within 90 nm of the front. The tail-end of this boundary has 
stalled and stretches from 26N47W to 25N53W. Fresh NW winds are 
noted in scatterometer data adjacent to the stationary front 
associated with a cluster of showers and thunderstorms from 26N- 
23N between 53W-62W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by
high pressure. 

The front will reach the Atlantic waters tonight and should 
extend from 31N74W to the central Bahamas by Saturday afternoon, 
from 31N71W to the SE Bahamas Sunday afternoon, and becoming 
stationary near the same location Monday afternoon. It is expected
to dissipate on Tuesday into Wednesday. Numerous showers and 
scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the front. There is 
potential for severe thunderstorms associated with the front north
of 27N tonight and Saturday.

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