000
AXNT20 KNHC 100430
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jan 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force NE to E
winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to
the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and 
low pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force 
tonight. After Sun night, fresh to locally strong winds will 
prevail there. Seas to 12 ft will occur within these winds.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off 
the coast of Texas tonight. Strong to near-gale force N winds
following the front will rapidly reach gale force near Tampico 
late Sat morning and afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters 
Sat evening through Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near 
Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 21 ft 
offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and 
stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will 
gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and then continues to 07N17W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N17W to 02N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed south of 07N and west of 17W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Bay of Campeche area. Please 
read the Special Features section above for details.

A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends southwestward
to the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this ridge 
and lower pressures associated with a cold front over the southern
United States result in moderate to fresh SE-S winds over much of
the basin, especially east of 96W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 
ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds off the northern
Yucatan will diminish late tonight, while moderate to locally
fresh SE-S winds elsewhere also weaken ahead of an incoming cold
front. The front will move off the coast of Texas late tonight. 
Strong to near-gale force N winds following the front will rapidly
reach gale force near Tampico late Sat morning and afternoon, and
in Veracruz adjacent waters Sat evening through Mon. Winds may 
peak around 45 kt near Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and 
likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun 
night. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to 
the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening.
Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into 
Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will 
prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front
could impact the basin with increasing winds and building seas by
Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect the waters off NW Colombia. Please 
read the Special Features section above for details.

The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over 
the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America 
results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite
pass. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas prevail. No significant 
convection is noted across the Caribbean basin.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the 
gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low 
pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force 
tonight. After Sun night, fresh to locally strong winds will 
prevail there. Seas to 12 ft will occur within these winds. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the 
central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and 
Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely 
pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola 
through Sat night, with similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba 
tonight and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will 
prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of 
Honduras tonight. A decaying cold front may move into or near the 
far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash out.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad 1030 mb high pressure system centered a few hundred miles
south of Nova Scotia dominates much of the SW North Atlantic, west
of 55W. A cold front extends from near 31N51W to 26N65W, where it
becomes a dissipating cold front to 29N73W. Moderate to fresh NE-E
winds and moderate seas are found west of a line from 31N50W to
Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, the central and eastern tropical Atlantic
waters are dominates by a 1034 mb high pressure system located
north of Madeira. A tight pressure gradient forces fresh to strong
easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the
waters east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building and sliding
eastward in the wake of a cold front that extends from 28N55W to 
26.5N67W to 29N72W will support moderate to fresh NE winds across 
the waters E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the 
approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun, with locally 
strong winds near the Windward Passage as the front washes out. A 
new cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to 
strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is 
forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon 
morning. Thereafter, the front will become stationary as it 
dissipates Mon night into Tue. The next cold front may enter the 
NW waters by Wed night.

$$
Delgado