000
AXNT20 KNHC 231028
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has come off the coast of Africa early this
morning. The wave extends from 00N to 13N with axis near 17W,
moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
14N between 12W and 20W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 00N to 12N with
axis near 39W, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 08N between 34W and 46W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 16N16W 
and extends southwestward to 04N27W. The ITCZ extends from 04N27W 
to 04N35W, where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ 
resumes at 04N40W to 03N51W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within
300 nm either side of the monsoon or ITCZ between 16W and 51W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends into the far SW Caribbean
reaching the Colombian Low. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted over the far SW Caribbean S of 12N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front extends across the northern Gulf from
the Tampa Bay area to south of Louisiana near 28N93W. An overall
weak pressure gradient is across the Gulf with a 1017 mb high
anchored near 26N93W and a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche.
Winds are gentle to moderate from the SE W of 90W and light to
gentle E of 90W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft basin-wide. 

For the forecast, the stationary front over the northern Gulf 
will dissipate today. High pressure will develop across the NE 
Gulf in the wake of this front and prevail through early next week
along with moderate to fresh SE wind across the western half of 
the Gulf. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds along
and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and 
evening through Tue night as a trough develops inland daily and 
then drifts westward to the Bay of Campeche at night. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in SE Mexico are expected to maintain hazy sky 
conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through Tue
night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure ridge N of the area 
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E winds in the
south-central Caribbean, generally S of 14N between 66-82W, where
seas are rough to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere.
Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection details 
over the SW basin.

For the forecast, the ridge associated with the Azores high will 
continue to extend into the northern Caribbean waters and will 
continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the central 
and portions of the SW Caribbean through Tue night. Moderate to 
fresh trades are forecast for the majority of the remainder basin,
except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras 
at night. A tropical wave will approach the tropical Atlantic 
waters Sat and enter the E Caribbean Sun night, thus enhancing the
winds and seas over the tropical Atlantic waters through Mon 
morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves. 

A stationary front extends from 31N71W to Port St Lucie, Florida.
Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough is generating scattered
showers and isolated tstms N of 29N between 64W and 71W. The 
ridge associated with the Azores high extends across the remainder
subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds are moderate or weaker, except
moderate to fresh S of 22N across the offshore waters NE of Puerto
Rico and over the tropical waters between 38W and the Lesser
Antilles. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also between the W coast
of Africa and 25W.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
across the northern Bahamas offshore waters today. The ridge 
associated with the Azores high will continue to extend across the
western subtropical Atlantic through Tue night, thus supporting 
moderate to fresh E to SE winds S of 24N, except for locally 
strong winds just N of Hispaniola pulsing at night. Otherwise, a 
series of weak frontal troughs will sweep eastward across the 
waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight through Sat 
and then again Mon through Tue.

$$
Ramos