000
AXNT20 KNHC 031713
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Nov 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Broad low pressure is expected to 
develop tonight along an old frontal boundary that extends from 
25N60W to the central Bahamas, near 26N between 65W and 70W. A 
very tight pressure gradient between the low pressure and strong 
high pressure to its north is expected to induce near-gale to 
gale-force northeast to east winds beginning Wed afternoon, 
roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas 
are expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with these winds 
through Thu as the low pressure drifts east-northeastward. The low
pressure could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this
week.
 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing 
over the western Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-level 
moisture and onshore flow over the next several days. This will 
favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America, 
northern South America, as well as Jamaica starting today and 
lasting through Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected 
across southern and western portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and 
Nicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation occurring today through 
Thursday. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for life-threatening 
flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather 
services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction 
Center for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Guinea 
near 11N15W, and continues southwestward to 06N21W, where it 
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N61W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring E of 20W
between 03N and 14N. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
are also occurring along and within 200 nm N of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The interaction between strong high pressure over the eastern 
United States and a trough over the southern and eastern Gulf is 
maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds and seas of 
4-6 ft over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeast to east 
winds and slight seas are elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection
is ongoing along the eastern end of a surface trough in the Gulf,
while more scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring 
offshore south-central Louisiana as an upper-level trough moves 
across the central US.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds
over the NE Gulf will shift north of the area today. A cold front
will enter the NW Gulf tonight through Wed, then weaken and 
dissipate Wed night. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds 
are expected west of the front. Another cold front is expected to 
move into the NW Gulf waters Fri through Sat night, followed by 
moderate to fresh northeast winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep-layer troughing in the western Caribbean supports scattered
moderate to strong convection N of 15N between 74W and 83W. In the
SW Caribbean, the influences from a surface trough and the East 
Pacific monsoon trough are combining to support scattered moderate
convection S of 14N and W of 80W. Elsewhere, the pressure
difference between surface ridging across the Atlantic and lower
pressure over Colombia supports moderate to fresh trades and 4-6
ft seas across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle
to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is 
supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over 
the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The 
pressure gradient will further loosen across the area by midweek. 
This will diminish the moderate trades across the central and 
eastern Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic.

A frontal boundary is analyzed from a 1016 mb low near 31N36W to
28N39W to 26N60W, where it then transitions to a shear line that
extends westward through the central Bahamas and to the SE FL 
coast. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 22N between
55W and 66W. Winds quickly increase from gentle to moderate 
trades S of the front and shear line to fresh to strong speeds N 
of these features. Seas of 8-11 ft are seen N of the front and 
shear line as well, with 5-8 ft seas S of these features. The 
remainder of the Atlantic is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker 
trade winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an old frontal boundary extends 
from near 26N55W westward to 26N60W, then becomes a shear line to 
27N70W and to the central Bahamas near 25N78W. Strong high 
pressure is centered north of Bermuda. The pressure gradient 
between these features will support widespread fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds and rough seas to 11 ft north of the 
frontal boundary and shear line west of about 60W today. Broad low
pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary 
southwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N, tonight through 
Wed, and track slowly east- northeastward during the rest of the 
week. A broad zone of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to 
very rough seas, peaking near 16 ft, will develop north of the low
pressure and expand eastward Wed through Fri, impacting the 
waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale- force winds will 
likely be north of 29N from Wed afternoon through early Fri. A 
weakening cold front will move across the waters between Florida 
and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and Sat night. 

$$
Adams