238 
AXNT20 KNHC 251008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy rain 
will continue to affect portions of Central America, particularly
areas in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras through at least 
early Fri. Abundant tropical moisture persists over the region, 
supported by a broad cyclonic circulation and a tropical wave 
that is reaching the coast of Nicaragua, and extends southward 
over Costa Rica. Currently, showers and thunderstorms are 
occurring over NE Honduras, the eastern plains of Nicaragua and 
parts of Costa Rica and western Panama. Areas of Nicaragua and 
Costa Rica are forecast to observe the highest amounts of rain 
today. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region 
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is added to the 0600 UTC analysis/surface map 
along 19W based on satellite imagery and the TPW product. In 
addition, the Howmoller Diagram shows the westward propagation of 
the wave, which is generating scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection from 06N to 10N between 13W and 20W. 

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 16N, moving
westward at around 15 to 20 kt. A few showers are seen near the 
trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, south of 18N, 
moving westward around 25 kt. The wave is enhancing convection 
over parts of Hispaniola and western Venezuela.

A strong tropical wave is along 83W in the western Caribbean, 
south of 19N, moving westward around 25 kt. The wave is helping to
induce convection over parts of Central America. Please, see the
Special Features section for more details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N32W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N32W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 
06N to 10N between 20W and 31W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf
waters producing in general gentle to moderate E to SE winds, with
the exception of moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Bay of 
Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal trough, 
and in the Straits of Florida where scatterometer data also 
indicate moderate to fresh E winds. Light and variable winds and 
slight seas prevail over the NE Gulf where a 1022 mb high pressure
is analyzed. Elsewhere, seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 3 to 5 ft over
the SE Gulf. Showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed 
over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are seen elsewhere across the western Gulf. A 
diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters 
through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
will pulse each evening and night over the next several days north
of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due 
to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere
through Sun. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. 

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh 
to strong trade winds over most of the east and central Caribbean,
with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt over the south-central 
Caribbean, offshore Colombia. Rough seas are within these winds. 
Fresh to strong E winds are also noted over the Windward Passage 
likely associated with the presence of strong convection there. 
Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the 
remainder of the basin. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge 
and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong 
trades across most of the central and and SW Caribbean through Sun
night. Winds are expected to reach near gale force off Colombia 
and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu and Thu night. Moderate to rough 
seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
winds and moderate seas will prevail. By Thu night, winds may 
increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due to the 
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of 
low pressure located over the eastern Pacific region, offshore of 
Central America and Southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper-level low, spinning just N of the NW Bahamas, is
generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
most of the waters NW of a line from 27N55W to the SE Bahamas, 
including the area between the Bahamas and east-central Cuba. The
Bermuda-Azores high dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with 
a 1026 mb center located near 33N36W. Scatterometer and altimeter 
data indicate fresh to locally strong trades and moderate to rough
seas over the tropical Atlantic between 45W to the Lesser Antilles,
from 19N to 24N E of 30W, and from 24N to 28N E of 18W to the 
coast of W Africa, including between the Canary Islands. Fresh to 
locally strong E to SE winds are noted N of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the entire
forecast area. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh 
trades along with moderate seas are expected south of 25N through 
the weekend, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. 
Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola 
Wed through Fri night.

$$
GR