000
AXNT20 KNHC 151727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Feb 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 04N18W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N18W through 02N30W to north of Sao Luis, 
Brazil at 01N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen E of 15W from the Equator to the African 
coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ, S 
of 04N between 18W and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front was analyzed from near Gulfport, MS to near 26N92W at
1200 UTC this morning, with a pre-frontal squall line occurring just
ahead. Convection within the squall line is producing SW winds of
near-gale to gale-force strength. Scatterometer data confirm 
fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front and N of 25N, with
seas of 6-8 ft. Much of the remaining Gulf N of 22N is seeing
moderate to fresh SW to W winds and moderate seas prevail, while
gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail
elsewhere. However in the far SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche mainly
offshore Veracruz, NW winds are fresh to strong due to enhanced
northerly flow behind the cold front and a strengthening pressure
gradient with high pressure building over northern Mexico.

For the forecast, a cold front across the central Gulf will move 
eastward today, accompanied by fresh to strong S to SW winds and 
moderate to rough seas. The front will move SE of the area by Mon 
afternoon, with winds and seas decreasing. High pres will build in
the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate winds with slight to 
moderate seas will prevail by midweek. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A frontal remnant trough extends from Puerto Rico southwestward in
to the east-central Caribbean, while another surface trough also
extends from Haiti southward into the central basin. These support
fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of each trough, along
with 6-8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the 
coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough 
seas are expected with these winds. Fresh to strong winds will 
prevail S of the Dominican Republic today as a high pressure 
center passing N of the area maintains a tight pressure gradient. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail
through the middle of next week, except for light to gentle winds
over the NW Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
through 31N48W to 19N64W. To the west, a frontal remnant trough is
analyzed S of a 1024 mb high near 30N71W. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are noted N of 24N between 45W and 52W. 
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front, with moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas also prevailing across the W 
Atlantic W of the front to the FL coast and S of the remnant 
trough. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north of 
the trough due to high pressure in the region.

For areas E of 45W and N of 10N, fresh to strong trades and rough
seas prevail due to an enhanced pressure difference between a 1035
mb high near 36N18W and lower pressures in the deep tropics.
Scatterometer data confirm strong to near gale-force NE winds 
prevailing N of 20N and E of 25W, with very rough seas N of the 
Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the discussion
waters will shift eastward enabling a cold front to move off the 
SE coast of the U.S. on Monday. S winds will strengthen offshore 
north and central Florida today in advance of the front. The front
will shift eastward over the forecast waters, moving east of the 
area the middle of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building
seas are expected in the wake of the front. These winds will 
diminish by the middle of next week, with rough seas lingering E 
of 60W. 

$$ 
Adams