000
AXNT20 KNHC 072206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jan 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to
06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N30W to 04N51W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N E of 17W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge associated with a 1020 high pressure centered offshore
Fort Myers, Florida, dominating Gulf weather. Gentle anticyclonic
flow thus encompasses most of the basin, but some moderate to
locally fresh SW winds are occurring just offshore the lower Texas
coast as well as off NE Mexico. Seas are 3 ft or less, except
locally 3 to 5 ft where the fresh winds are present. 

For the forecast, fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas are 
expected to develop west of 90W tonight as the pressure gradient 
increases between ridging over the eastern basin and a developing 
storm system in the central United States. Strong winds will pulse
offshore of south Texas and northeastern Mexico tonight through 
Thu, and locally rough seas may accompany these winds. Moderate to
fresh SE winds will expand eastward over much of the Gulf on Thu,
with these winds continuing through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold 
front will enter the northwestern Gulf late Fri night. Fresh to 
strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of 
the front as it moves over the basin into early next week. Gale 
force winds will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz, 
Mexico Sat into Sun late night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low is 
producing fresh to strong trade winds with 6 to 8 ft seas over the
south- central Caribbean. Locally fresh N winds are occurring 
south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Seas of 4 to 6 ft
are within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force NE to E 
winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia through this 
weekend as low pressure prevails over the region. Rough seas will 
occur near and to the west of these winds. Strong winds are also 
expected each afternoon and evening in the Gulf of Venezuela 
starting on Thu afternoon. Fresh NE to E winds will occur over the
central Caribbean tonight, including through the Windward 
Passage, with fresh winds expanding over much of the basin through
late week as the pressure gradient increases between the 
Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Pulsing strong winds
are expected through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
nightly starting on Thu night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has stalled from 31N44W to a 1014 mb low near 21N59W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted E of this front, N of 25N
between 42W and 48W. Fresh to strong S winds are present in the
vicinity of this convection. Ridging associated with high pressure
centered W of the Florida Peninsula is leading to mainly gentle
winds to the W of the stationary front. To the east, strong high
pressure of 1037 mb located between the Azores and the Madeiras 
Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. 
Strong NE winds are evident N of 15N E of 20W, and from 21N to 
30N between 20W and 30W. Seas are 9 to 12 ft within these winds. 
Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are observed 
over the tropical Atlantic E of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas, in long period NE swell, are seen E of the Lesser 
Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SW to W 
winds and moderate seas occurring west of 67W and north of 29N 
will slowly diminish tonight as a surface trough moves eastward. 
Gentle or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are then 
expected over the northwest tropical Atlantic on Thu as a weak 
pressure gradient develops. High pressure building off the coast 
of the eastern United States on Fri will support moderate to 
locally fresh NE to E winds and building seas over the region 
through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated move 
off the coast of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, leading to fresh to
locally strong NW winds and building seas to 9 ft in the wake of 
the front. 

$$
Konarik