000
AXNT20 KNHC 092247
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jan 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off 
the coast of Texas tonight. Strong to near-gale force N winds 
following the front will rapidly reach gale-force near Tampico 
late Sat morning and afternoon, and in the Veracruz adjacent 
waters Sat evening through Mon morning. Winds may peak around 45 
kt near Veracruz. Rough to high seas will quickly build, peaking 
at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz on Sun. The front will stall 
and weaken from western Cuba, to the Yucatan Channel, then to the 
eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf 
will gradually improve by Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near
07N13W, then runs westward to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues westward
from 06N17W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 01N to 06N between 16W and 36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Bay of Campeche area. Please 
read the Special Features section above for details.

A surface ridge dominates the Gulf region, while a cold front is 
approaching the Gulf states coastline from the north. The 
pressure gradient between these two features is supporting fresh 
to strong SE to S winds over the southern part of the Gulf. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds are noted elsewhere. Moderate seas 
prevail across the basin, except for slight seas within about 120 
nm of the Florida Peninsula. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds across portions 
of the southwest and central Gulf will diminish to moderate to 
fresh speeds tonight ahead of the next cold front. The front will
move off the coast of Texas tonight. Please, see the Special 
Features section for more details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh
to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, with the 
strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt offshore Colombia. Rough seas are 
associated with these winds, that are the result of the pressure 
gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian 
low. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring south of 
Hispaniola while moderate to fresh NE to E winds are blowing 
across the Windward Passage, between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and
in the lee of Cuba. Moderate seas are within these winds. 
Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to 
moderate seas. 

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the 
gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low 
pressure over northern Colombia, then fresh to strong there 
afterwards. Rough seas will occur within these winds. Moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and SW 
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent 
waters. Strong winds will be likely pulsing at night over the 
Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through Sat night, with 
similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba tonight and Sat night. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail, except for 
moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A 
decaying cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean 
early next week where it will stall and wash out.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge, anchored on a 1029 mb high pressure located well
N of the area near 40N65W, dominates the western Atlantic, the 
State of Florida and the Bahamas. A cold front enters the forecast
region near 31N55W and extends to 27N65W to 30N73W. Moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds are noted per scatterometer data in the wake 
of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring elsewhere W 
of 60W with slight to moderate seas. A 1015 mb surface low has
developed near 27N55W. A surface trough is analyzed from the low
to 20N60W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity
of these features N of 23N between 46W-59W. Strong winds are 
noted within this convection per satellite derived wind data. 
Farther E, high pressure of 1033 mb located between the Azores 
and the Madeiras Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic 
forecast region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure 
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ is 
generating a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds roughly 
from 10N to 25N E of 36W to the coast of west Africa with seas of 
8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are 
noted over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building and 
sliding eastward in the wake of a cold front that extends from 
31N56W to 31N73W will support moderate to fresh NE winds across 
the waters E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the 
approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun, with strong winds
near the Windward Passage. A new cold front will emerge off the 
NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will
follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will 
become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue.

$$
ERA