000
AXNT20 KNHC 220015
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough 
currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm 
sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is 
a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the 
next several days. All of these factors are expected to lead to 
enhanced moisture funneling into Central America to support heavy
rainfall from September 22nd through the 25th. There is still 
some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest 
rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across portions
of Costa Rica and Panama, as well as across southern Guatemala, 
far western Honduras, and far northern El Salvador. Heavy 
rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local 
weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W/32W from 05N 
to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is 
noted with this wave. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 21N46W to 
06N49W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are within 300 nm either side of the wave
from 06N to 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
14N17W southwestward to 10N21W and to near 07N35W. The ITCZ axis
extends from 07N35W to 07N44W and to near 05N52W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N and east of 25W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the 
trough between 20W-24W, and south of the trough from 06N to 09N 
between 14W-22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A very weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating
light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper-
level low centered over northern Florida is interacting with a 
pair of surface troughs in the eastern Gulf to support scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 23N and E of 90W. Another 
surface trough extending into the Gulf from northeastern Mexico is 
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
western Gulf as well.

For the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force only 
gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous 
upper-level low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the 
next two days. Looking ahead, a cold front should move across the
NE Gulf Thu night and Fri accompanied by little to no increase 
in the winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends 
across the far southwestern Caribbean. The low is interacting with 
an upper-level trough that is over the Gulf of America and 
northwestern Caribbean. This is resulting in numerous moderate to 
strong convection across the Caribbean over the central portion and 
the eastern portion of the western Caribbean between 75W and 84W. 
This activity extends northward to across Cuba and further north to 
the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is along and just inland 
the coast of Honduras and over the northeast part of Nicaragua. 
Similar activity is south of 13N west of about 80W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 84W. 
Outside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the basin. 
Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas remain east of 
80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west 
of 80W.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area to the Colombian Low is forcing only moderate 
to fresh with locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean 
for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W 
Caribbean for at least the next two days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.1N 32.2W 
at 21/2100 UTC, or roughly about 390 nm southwest of the Azores,
moving south-southwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with 
gusts to 50 kt. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more info on 
Tropical Storm Fay.

A broad upper-level trough extends from the eastern Gulf of 
America into the northwest Caribbean. Upper-level divergence east
of the trough is supporting clusters of moderate convection 
north of 20N and west of 67W. Farther east in the central 
Atlantic, an upper-level low near 26N49W moving westward and 
surface trough that extends from near 32N41W to 25N50W and to 
near 21N56W are interacting with the central Atlantic tropical, 
with the end result being scattered moderate convection over the 
waters from 20N to 31N between 36W and 45W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are near the southern portion of the 
surface trough. Outside of convection, a rather weak pressure 
gradient across much of the Atlantic supports mostly gentle to 
moderate trades. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring with these 
trades.

For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient 
between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ
will only allow for gentle to moderate trades across forecast 
waters through Thu. A vigorous upper-level low will continue to 
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for at 
least the next couple of days. Looking ahead, a cold front will 
emerge from the southeastern United States coast late Wed night, 
and reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and 
from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh to 
strong north winds along with building seas will follow the front
on Thu and Fri, before diminishing on Sat.

. 
Fresh N winds and increasing seas will follow the front.

$$
Aguirre