121 
AXNT20 KNHC 212320
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Feb 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is entering 
the NW Gulf and will shift quickly across the basin through Sun 
night, producing strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough to
very rough seas behind it. Gale-force winds are expected offshore
of Tampico Sun and offshore of Veracruz Sun afternoon and night.
Seas offshore Tampico are expected to build to 12 to 14 ft while
seas offshore Veracruz are forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft. A 
Gale Warning is also in effect for the coastal waters from the 
western Florida Panhandle all the way to south Texas. Gusty winds
of 35 to 40 kt are expected in these waters in the wake of the 
front. Winds and seas should gradually subside from NW to SE Mon 
through Tue as high pressure builds across the Gulf region behind
the cold front.

Atlantic Gale Warning: This same strong cold front moving through
the Gulf of America this weekend will push offshore of the 
southeastern U.S. Sun, with strong to gale force NW winds and 
rapidly building seas behind the front through early Mon. Seas
during this time will build 12 to 15 ft. The front is expected 
to reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba Mon, and from 31N60W 
to the Dominican Republic Tue, while weakening. The front will 
stall from 29N55W to the Mona Passage Wed. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 
the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 03N between 30W and 40W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
GALE WARNING.

As of 21Z, a cold front is entering the NW Gulf and extends from
SW Louisiana to south Texas and NE Mexico. High pressure 
centered over the western Atlantic extends a ridge across Florida
into the Gulf region. Under this weather pattern, a gentle to 
moderate SE return flow across is noted ahead of the front. Seas 
are in general 3 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft offshore Florida to 
about 85W. The SE return flow is lifting smoke from agricultural 
fires in SE Mexico northward, producing hazy skies W of 90W. 

For the forecast, a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of
America will bring strong to gale-force winds and very rough 
seas. Please, see the Special features section for more 
information.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and 
lower pressure over Colombia is currently supporting strong to 
near-gale force tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean. These
winds were well-sampled by the most recent satellite derived 
wind data. The persistence of these near-gale force wind speeds 
and fresh to strong trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean
has resulted in 8 to 11 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean 
off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere across the basin, seas are 4
to 7 ft with moderate to locally fresh trades, except in the 
Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong SE winds prevail. Seas are
6 to 8 ft within these winds.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic ridge
along 25N and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong 
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Sun, 
before diminishing. Winds will reach near-gale force tonight 
offshore of Colombia. Farther east, rough seas will linger E of 
the Lesser Antilles through tonight as N swell progresses across 
the central tropical Atlantic. A strong cold front will enter the
northwestern Caribbean Sun night, then extend from NW Haiti to 
near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border by late Mon night. Expect 
strong N winds and rapidly building seas behind this front. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
GALE WARNING.

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with 1019 mb 
high pressure centered near 27N70W and another 1019 mb high 
pressure located near 24N52W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds
and moderate seas are noted around the southern periphery of the
ridge W of 45W. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the 
tropical Atlantic, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Decaying NW
swell is producing rough seas to 9 ft north of 20N and east of 
35W. The pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and frontal
boundaries located just N of 31N resulting in fresh westerly 
winds and rough seas roughly between 50W and 60W. Farther E, fresh
to locally strong NE winds are seen between the Canary Islands 
due to the pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure 
situated W of Portugal and a trough over NW Africa. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned ridge extending 
from the central Atlantic along 25N to the NW Bahamas will shift 
slowly eastward through the weekend, allowing a strong cold front
to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. Sun, with strong to 
gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas behind it. Please, 
see the Special features section for more information. 

$$
GR