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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 071015

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 09N13W to 
03N21W to 02N31W to 01N35W. The ITCZ is south of the equator 
between 38W and 46W. Scattered moderate convection is south of 
06N between 05W and 13W. Isolated showers are noted elsewhere near
the monsoon trough axis.


A cold front extends across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from Saint
Petersburg Florida to 26N91W. A dissipating stationary front
trails westward from 26N91W to 26N93W to 25N95W. A small area of
moderate showers is evident along the frontal boundary between 
88W and 91W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from Lake Okeechobee
in southern Florida to 24N83W. Scatterometer data shows gentle to 
moderate NE to E winds across the NW Gulf, gentle NW winds in the 
NE Gulf, and N to NE winds in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Seas 
are estimated to be 2 to 4 ft across the basin. SAB analysis of 
satellite imagery indicates light to medium smoke west of 90W in 
the Gulf of Mexico from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and 
Central America. 

The cold front across the eastern Gulf will push southward east 
of 90W through tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected 
in the western and central Gulf this weekend. Hazy sky conditions 
due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are likely across
the SW Gulf for several more days.


Scattered showed are noted south of 11.5N in the SW Caribbean west
76W. Isolated trade wind shower activity prevails across the rest
of the basin. Scatterometer data shows a small area of fresh NE to
E winds near the coast of Colombia, moderate trade winds in the
eastern Caribbean Sea, and gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 6
across most of the region, except 2-3 ft in the NW Caribbean.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over 
most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across 
the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the 
north. Hazy sky conditions from agricultural fires in Central
America are possible across the NW Caribbean for several days.


A broad subtropical ridge continues as the dominant feature 
across the Atlantic Ocean, anchored by high pressure near 33N22W 
and a 1022 mb high near 28N48W. A weak surface trough is analyzed 
in the western Atlantic from 28N56W to 25N64W to 23N67W. A cold 
front associated with a surface low near 32N78W extends into the 
waters east of northern Florida from 31N79W to Cape Canaveral 
Florida. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 29N78W to Lake 
Okeechobee in southern Florida. Scattered moderate showers and 
isolated embedded thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the 
front from 27N to 30N. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh 
trade winds from 07N to 17N in the tropical N Atlantic between 45W
and 62W, moderate to fresh southerly winds north of 26N ahead of 
the cold front to 73W, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. 
Seas are 6 to 7 ft across the tropical N Atlantic between 40W and 
60W, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere south of 20N, and 2-3 ft north of 20N.

The cold front east of northern Florida will reach from 31N74W to
Miami Florida later today. The northern part of the front will 
shift eastward across the northern waters through Sat night. A 
cold front will move south of 30N into the waters east of Florida 
Tue night.