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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 271727

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto as of 27/1500 UTC, is
located near 27.1N 84.4W, or about 113 nmi WSW of Tampa, FL, or 
about 161 nmi SSE of Apalachicola, FL. The estimated minimum 
central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 
45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. The system is moving N at about 
12 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from
21N-31N between 76W-87W affecting the Florida peninsula, Straits
and Keys, northern Bahamas and central Cuba. Alberto is expected
to become a tropical storm during the next few hours before moving 
inland over the Florida Panhandle by 28/12Z. The system will 
weaken rapidly after that. Public Advisories about Subtropical 
Storm Alberto are being listed under the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC, 
and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The Forecast/Advisories 
about Subtropical Storm Alberto are being listed under the WMO 
header WTNT21 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.


A tropical wave extends its axis across the eastern Atlantic from
12N25W to 00N26W, moving W at about 10 kt. The wave shows up well
in lower level precipitable water imagery. Scattered showers are 
noted along and the wave axis mainly south of 05N. 


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 
11N15W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical wave
near 03N28W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 50 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ axes.



Please read the Special Features section for information about 
Subtropical Storm Alberto, currently located over the eastern 
Gulf. This system is supported at upper levels by a trough that
extends along 87W covering the central and east Gulf waters and 
the Yucatan Channel. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong winds over the east Gulf near Alberto, moderate to fresh
winds over the central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the
western Gulf waters. Wave heights across the basin are ranging 
from 12-15 ft near Alberto's center, 5-8 ft over the central Gulf 
and 2-3 ft for the western Gulf waters. Expect for winds and seas 
to decrease following landfall on Monday. 


Please refer to the Special Features section above, for 
information about Subtropical Storm Alberto, currently located 
over the eastern Gulf. An upper-level trough extends from the 
central Gulf of Mexico, across the Yucatan Channel into the 
northwest corner of the Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection 
covers portions of Cuba and adjacent waters due to the proximity 
of Alberto. This activity is mostly located west of 79W. Another 
area of scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted south 
of 12N between 75W-82W affecting Central America and northern 
Colombia. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly 
winds across most of the basin except west of 80W, where gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail. Wave heights range between 4-6 
ft across the far east and west Caribbean, while 5-7 ft seas will 
continue between 69W- 74W. 

The winds and the sea heights will continue to decrease in the 
western Caribbean, given that Alberto is moving away from the 
area. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh 
to strong trade winds pulsing in the central Caribbean through 
the early part of the week. The fastest wind speeds are expected 
along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.


Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about Subtropical Storm Alberto, currently located over the 
eastern Gulf. The surface pressure gradient between Subtropical 
Storm Alberto and the Atlantic surface ridge may support 
increasing wind speeds to near gale-force in the Florida coastal 
and offshore waters through tonight. A surface ridge extends 
across the basin from a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 
31N58W, to a 1029 mb high near 39N25W. Aside from the convection
related to Alberto over the west Atlantic west of 75W, the only 
area with shower activity at this time is east of the Leeward 
Islands from 16N-19N between 54W-63W due an upper-level trough.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected south of 25N through 
Monday, pulsing to fresh to strong offshore of northern Hispaniola
during the afternoon through evening hours each day. southerly 
winds will increase to fresh to locally strong west of 77W, from 
tonight through Sunday night, as the pressure gradient tightens 
between Subtropical Storm Alberto in the Gulf of Mexico and high 
pressure across the area. Those conditions should improve by 
Tuesday, as the pressure gradient weakens. 

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