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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 171742

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


The Central American Gyre has slipped into the Eastern Pacific
south of Guatemala. Further development will be in that basin.
Scattered moderate to strong convection remains, however, over S
Mexico between 94W-97W. Local flooding still remains a threat 

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N83W to
30N88W. A stationary front continues from 30N88W to the NW Gulf 
of Mexico near 28N93W to S Mexico near 18N93W. A gale is W of 
front and S of 25N. Seas are 08-14 ft. Expect the gale to 
continue until 19/0000 UTC.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 03N-17N, 
moving W at 10 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a distinct maximum in 
moisture around the wave axis. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
of the wave axis. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 05N-21N, moving west
at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is associated with the wave, and 
there is a local maximum in SSMI TPW. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is from 08N-20N between 61W-64W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 07N-20N, moving W
at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a distinct maximum in moisture 
around the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-
18N between 79W-84W. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W 
to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 07N27W. The ITCZ 
resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N27W and extends to the coast
of South America near 05N53W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
either side of the ITCZ. 


A front is over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. A Gale 
is in the cold sector S of 25W. See the special features section 
above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over 
the W Gulf S of 29N between 93W-97W. Scattered showers are over 
the central Gulf from 24N-27N between 87W-90W. The remainder of 
the Gulf has mainly 10-20 kt E to SE surface winds, and mostly 
fair weather. The front is expected to remain stationary for the 
next few days. 


Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. See above.

An upper level low is centered S of Hispaniola near 17N73W
enhancing scattered showers from the Leeward Islands to E Cuba. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through the next 
several days, except locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, 
the approach to the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and in the
Lee of eastern Cuba, through the end of the week. 


A tropical wave is in the tropical Atlantic. See above.

A 1033 mb high is located over the E Atlantic near 42N26W. High
pressure ridging extends to the central Atlantic. A surface 
trough is in the central Atlantic from 28N43W to 19N45W enhancing
trade wind showers north of 19N between 30W-50W. This area of 
showers is moving west at 15 kt.

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