460 
AXNT20 KNHC 060615
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Nov 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1002 mb low pressure area, 
located near 26N65W, is producing fresh to near gale-force NE to E 
winds in the north semicircle, extending past 30N and between 52W
and 70W per recent scatterometer satellite data. Altimeter data
and Sofar buoy data show seas of 8 to 14 ft within these winds. 
Scattere moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted in
the same region while numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 18N to 25N between 55W and 61W. This system could acquire 
some subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days 
while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central 
subtropical Atlantic. By late this weekend, upper-level winds are 
forecast to become unfavorable for further development. While a 
new non-tropical low could form from the remnants of the current 
low early next week, environmental conditions are unlikely to 
support significant development. Regardless, gale-force winds are 
forecast over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic from Sat
morning through the rest of the weekend. Please read the latest 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website:

https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html and the latest Tropical
weather outlook at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/TWOEP.html
for more details.

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Middle-level 
troughing over the SW Caribbean and upper level divergence over 
Central America and into the tropical eastern Pacific will 
interact with enhanced low-level moisture and onshore flow south 
of the monsoon trough over the next several days. This will favor 
heavy precipitation developing across Central America through at 
least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, which may lead to life-threatening 
flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather 
agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends to
10N21W. The ITCZ extends from 10N21W to 08N40W to the coast of 
northern South America at 08N54W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 01N to 13N between 09W and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 
30N86W and continues southwestward to 25N94W offshore of NE 
Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is across coastal Texas
waters. Otherwise, surface ridging over the Gulf along a weak
pressure gradient support mainly light to gentle winds and slight
seas basin-wide.

For the forecast, the stalled front will start to push southward 
as a cold front across the Gulf waters Friday. Near gale NW winds 
are expected in the SW Gulf Sun night and Mon west of the front. 
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere west of the front 
on Sun through early next week as it moves east across the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 mb low is centered over the northwestern Caribbean offshore
eastern Honduras with scattered heavy showers and tstms extending
from 17N to 19N between 81W and 85W. Scattered showers are also
occuring offshore southern Jamaica. Over the NW Caribbean and NW
of the low, gentle to moderate NNE winds are present. Moderate or
weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will 
result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to 
moderate seas, through early next week. Winds will strengthen over
the central Caribbean Tuesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning and the potential for subtropical development of this 
system (Invest AL94).

Elsewhere, a cold front enters the central Atlantic near 30N23W 
and extends southwestward to 24N35W. Moderate to locally fresh SW
winds are occurring south and east of the front.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low in the Special Features
section will drift eastward through Fri then slowly move east-
northeastward during the weekend. Strong to gale-force winds, and
rough to very rough seas are forecast over the weekend. Elsewhere,
a weakening cold front will move across the waters between 
Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and Sat 
night.

$$
Ramos