827 
AXNT20 KNHC 230556
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jun 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0455 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 14N, 
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 04N to 07N and between 43W and 49W.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, located along
60W, south of 16N, and moving westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed south of 14N and between 55W and 
62W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 17N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present over northern and offshore Colombia.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 5-10 kt. This wave is enhancing convection
over Central America.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 18N16W, then curves southwestward to 09N24W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N24W to 06N44W, and then from 06N46W to 07N57W. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 nm of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East 
Pacific monsoon trough is generating numerous heavy showers and 
thunderstorms across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers are observed in the Bay of Campeche, especially
near the coast of Veracruz. Meanwhile, an upper level low in the
central Gulf is producing some popcorn convection in the area and
a few showers are seen in the NE Gulf. The subtropical ridge 
extends into the Gulf of America and a recent scatterometer 
satellite pass indicate that strong to near gale-force easterly 
trade winds are found in the Bay of Campeche. These winds are 
partially attributed to the wind surge associated with the 
outflow boundary moving across the area. Seas in these waters 
are 4-6 ft (1.5-2 m). Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 
moderate seas prevail in the rest of the basin, except for light 
to gentle winds and slight seas in the NE Gulf. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through
the period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each afternoon
and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops 
and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh east to 
southeast winds and moderate seas over the central and western 
Gulf will diminish early this week. Gentle to moderate winds, and 
slight to locally moderate seas, can be expected thereafter.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Outside of the SW Caribbean, plenty of tropical moisture and 
divergence aloft result in isolated to scattered showers across 
the NW and eastern Caribbean. A broad subtropical ridge north of
the islands continues to support fresh to locally strong easterly
winds over much of the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicate that the strongest winds are found in the SE and
south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Rough seas are noted
in the south-central Caribbean, while moderate seas are evident in
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong 
trades over the central part of the basin through the week. 
Moderate to rough seas are expected within these winds. Pulsing 
fresh to strong winds are forecast in the Windward Passage tonight
and again Mon night. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and 
moderate seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1017 mb low 
pressure (Invest 90L) near 32N57W to 24N70W. A few showers are
noted near the trough axis. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic
is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge anchored
by a 1033 mb high pressure system near the Azores. Moderate to 
locally strong easterly trade winds are present south of 25N and 
west of 40W, with the strongest winds occurring near and east of 
the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to locally rough seas are found in 
the waters described. Satellite-derived wind data from a few hours
ago showed fresh to strong NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ and east of 40W. The strongest winds are found off the 
coast of Western Sahara. Seas are 6-10 ft (2-3 ft) in the waters 
east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough extends over the NE waters
from a 1016 mb low centered near 32N57W, with scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with it. The low is 
forecast to drift NE over the next couple of days. Otherwise, high
pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with 
moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the 
next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. 

$$
Delgado