AXNT20 KNHC 241156
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along
19W from 03N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to
this wave is noted from 07N to 10N between 19W and 21W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W from 03N to 19N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave
meets the ITCZ from 06N to 08N between 50W and 55W.
The axis of a tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along
63W from eastern Venezuela northward to the Leeward Islands,
moving W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave's axis.
The axis of a tropical wave extends from eastern Cuba to eastern
Panama. This wave, is interacting with an upper level trough
extending across the SE Bahamas to the central Caribbean, and will
enhance convection over Cuba today.
Another tropical wave is near 89W, and extends over the Yucatan
Peninsula and Guatemala into the eastern north Pacific region.
This wave in conjunction with an upper level low spinning over the
west-central Gulf of Mexico will continue to support convection
over SE Mexico and the SW Gulf of Mexico.
The monsoon trough extends off western Africa near 18N16W to
10N23W to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 05N50W to the
coast of Guyana near 07N58.5W. Outside of the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted
within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis W of 35W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper-level low centered near 21N98W is helping to induce some
shower and tstm activity across the SW Gulf as well as portions
of SE Mexico. The low will drift westward through Sun night, and
continue to enhance convection across this area.
Weak ridge extending from the southeast Gulf waters to Texas will
drift to over the northern Gulf early next week, supporting
moderate to fresh SE return flow over the northwestern Gulf. A
trough moving west off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
each night will further enhance overnight winds over much of the
southwestern Gulf waters.
Two tropical waves are propagating across the area, one moving
across the central Caribbean, and another tropical wave is moving
across the eastern Caribbean. Please, see Tropical Waves section
for more details. Expect increasing showers and isolated
thunderstorms in association with the passage of these tropical
Fresh to strong winds prevail across the central and eastern
Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to
moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Winds will reach near gale
force off Colombia at night. Little change is expected through
the middle of the week. Areal coverage of fresh to strong trades
will decrease afterwards as high pressure north of the area
weakens. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft over the south-
central Caribbean with the strongest winds. Nocturnal winds will
pulse to fresh to strong winds the next couple of nights in the
Gulf of Honduras.
High pressure of 1027 mb centered near 31N51W extends a ridge
westward across the forecast area. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds prevail along the southern periphery of the ridge, S of 20N
W of 40W. This high pressure will slowly shift westward tonight,
then remain nearly stationary near 30N55W while weakening through
Tue night. The weakening of the area of high pressure will loosen
the pressure gradient, with diminishing winds and subsiding seas
E of the Lesser Antilles toward the middle of the week. Nocturnal
winds will continue to pulse to fresh to strong the next several
nights off Hispaniola.
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