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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 182357

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC. 


The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 09N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point 
to 04N37W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 220 
nm north and 180 nm south of the boundary between the west coast 
of Africa to 30W. Between 30W-50W, scattered showers are along and 
in the vicinity of the boundary with scattered to broken cloud 
cover associated with the convection.


Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. 
A surface trough is over the SW the Gulf of Mexico parallel to 
the coast of Mexico from 26N97W to 20N97W. Scattered showers are 
occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico, mainly west of 90W. 
This includes areas within 90 nm along the coast of Texas.

A 1016 mb surface low is centered near 24N83W. A surface trough 
passes from 27N85W to the low and into the NW Caribbean near 

Moderate to fresh SE flow will set up across the western Gulf 
today ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the coast of Texas 
tonight. This front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico, 
Mexico by Mon night. Then, a reinforcing cold front will move off 
the Texas coast early Tue, merging with the stationary front, then
reaching from the Florida panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico Tue 
night. The western portion will stall Tue night and then drift 
northwest through midweek. The eastern portion will continue SE, 
reaching from S Florida to the central Gulf by late Wed. 


A 1015 mb low centered just north of western Cuba near 24N83W 
extends a trough to 20N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are near the Isle of Youth, generally between 82W-84W. Another 
surface trough extends from 17N83W to southern Belize. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 17N-20N between 82W-87W.

The SW end of a stationary front goes through the SE Bahamas and
ends over eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are seen in the area
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba as well as in the Windward

The monsoon trough near Panama is bringing scattered moderate 
convection to the far SW Caribbean south of 10N between 75W-82W, 
and over Colombia and Panama. 

Convergence along this trough will continue to support scattered 
showers and tstms through Mon night. Strong high pressure building
N of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds along the coast
of Colombia. These winds and associated seas will prevail through
early Tue as the center of high pressure shifts eastward across 
the NW Atlc waters. Large swell over the Atlantic Ocean will 
continue to impact the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Tue


A stationary front enters the forecast area near 30N63W and 
continues to a 1016 mb low near 30N65W. The stationary front 
continues to a 1015 mb low near 27N70W, and continues to the SE 
Bahamas near 22N73W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm of a line from
28N. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 28N-32N 
between 57W-66W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible 
elsewhere along the front.

A second cold front passes through the west coast of the country 
of Western Sahara near 21N17W to 20N20W and transitions to a
dissipating front from that point to 20N24W. A surface trough 
continues from that point westward to 19N43W. Scattered moderate 
convection is located north of 23N and east of 24W, and this 
activity is moving SE toward the country of Western Sahara. Long 
period NW swell in excess of 15 ft are affecting the entire NE 
Atlantic north of 18N and east of 35W, including the Madeira and 
Canary Islands.

Relatively quiet weather is over the central subtropical Atlantic
due to a 1023 mb surface high near 27N46W. 

Fresh to strong winds and associated seas will continue mainly 
within 120 nm NW of the stationary front through early this 
evening. The front will remain nearly stationary through Mon 
night. Then, a reinforcing cold front will reach the north waters 
Tue and merge with the stationary front.

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