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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 181824

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
224 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


Tropical Storm Nestor is centered near 26.3N 89.5W at 18/1800
UTC or 170 nm S of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving NE
at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous 
strong convection is E of the center from 23N-28N between 85W-89W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere 
from 23N-31N between 80W-90W. On the forecast track, the center 
of Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and 
tonight and move inland across portions of the southeastern United
States Saturday and Sunday as it becomes a post-tropical cyclone.
Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North 
Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Nestor is 
expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-
tropical on Saturday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website for more details.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 12N southward, 
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm
of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean along 64W from 20N 
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean along 83W from 17N 
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 08N-13N between 75W-84W.  


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W 
to 06N20W to 05N28W. The ITCZ extends from 05N28W to 06N35W. The 
ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave near 06N38W to the coast of 
French Guyana near 05N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, isolated moderate convection is along the
ITCZ from 04N-10N between 39W-48W. 


T.S. Nestor is over the Gulf of Mexico. See Special Features 
section above for details.

As of 18/1500 UTC, a stationary front over S Florida extends from
27N80W to 27N83W. A warm front continues from 27N83W to the
central Gulf of Mexico near 29N89W to 28N91W. Of note in the upper
levels, a small upper level trough is over Louisiana and
Mississippi moving E. Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis
is enhancing the convection over T.S. Nestor.

T.S. Nestor will move to 27.8N 88.0W this evening, 29.9N 85.5W 
Sat morning, become extratropical and move to 32.2N 82.5W Sat 
evening, 34.4N 78.5W Sun morning, and 37.0N 71.0W Mon morning. 
Marine conditions will improve rapidly across the basin Sat night 
and Sun as the cyclone accelerates off to the NE into the W Atlc. 
A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Mon night, and extend across 
the basin from northern Florida to NE Mexico on Tue night. 


Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above.

An Upper level high is centered over the NW Caribbean near 20N85W.
Strong subsidence is over the central Caribbean from N of 13N
between 69W-84W producing mostly fair weather. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin 
through the weekend, with fresh SE winds likely near the Yucatan 
Channel through Sat as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen moves NE
across the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave will traverse Central
America today and Sat. Another tropical wave moving across the 
Lesser Antilles will be accompanied by active weather as it moves 
W across the eastern Caribbean through Sat.


As of 18/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 
31N64W to 26N76W to 27N79W, then transitions to a stationary 
front over the N Bahamas near 27N79W to S Florida near 27N80W.  
Scattered moderate convection is N of 29N between 56W-64W.
Isolated moderate convection is over the N Bahamas. A surface
trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N53W to 29N54W marked
with a wind shift. Another surface trough is over the e Atlantic
from 27N30W to 24N31W to 20N31W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 25N-29N between 24W-29W. of note in the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the E Atlantic with axis from 30N28W to
17N40W. Upper level diffluence E of the axis is enhancing the
convection over the E Atlantic. 

The W Atlantic front will move E toward the central Atlantic 
through tonight. T.S. Nestor in the central Gulf of Mexico will 
move NE across the SE U.S. this weekend, and produce strong to 
near gale force southerly winds ahead of it across W Atlantic 
waters tonight through Sun night. Weak high pressure will prevail 
over the area Mon and Tue. A cold front will move off the coast of
northern Florida Tue evening.