288 
AXNT20 KNHC 122228
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jul 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 73W
and extends from Haiti to the Venezuela/Colombia border where the
wave appears to enhance moderate to isolated strong convection. 
The wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms follow the wave axis affecting mainly the waters 
from 13N to 16N between 64W and 73W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N38W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N38W to the coast of Guyana near 08N60W. Convection is limited
across the area. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward across
Florida into the Gulf region. Associated southeasterly low level flow
continues to transport abundant low level moisture into the basin.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted along the
coastal waters on the N Gulf states. Similar convective activity
is occurring over north-central Florida, mainly N of Lake Okeechobee.
The ridge is supporting gentle to moderate winds, except moderate
to locally fresh winds over the SW Gulf. Seas are generally 2 to 4
ft throughout. 

For the forecast, a stationary front will reside just N of the area
through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf
waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to strong
easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night.
Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate
SE winds. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian
Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean. Seas
are 10 to 13 ft with these winds offshore Colombia based on altimeter
data. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras,
and in the SW part of the basin reaching the coast of Nicaragua.
Moderate to rough seas are with the latter winds. Moderate to fresh
trade winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the
basin. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are over the
SW Caribbean, affecting mainly Panama. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north
of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will
continue to support strong to near-gale force trade winds across
the central Caribbean into mid-week. East winds will pulse strong
each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the waters N of 23N between 50W and 67W.
A surface trough is analyzed in this area and runs from 31N57W to
23N64W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence
of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh trade
winds and moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain 
dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to 
fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north.
Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage.

Of note: While The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring
several areas with the potential for tropical cyclone development
across the eastern and central Pacific, the Atlantic basin remains
relatively quiet. No tropical waves are currently noted between W
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. This pattern is typical during an
El Nino year.

$$
GR