000
AXNT20 KNHC 032258
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde Islands near 30W, 
extending from 03N to 17N, and moving W at around 15 kt. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 06N to 
11N between 29W and 34W.

A tropical wave is across the eastern Caribbean, south of 19N,  
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 10N to 16N between 61W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16.5W and 
continues southwestward to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N34W 
to 05.5N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the 
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident within 60
nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 34W and 54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure extends a ridge across the western Atlantic SW 
across the SE U.S. and to the central Gulf waters, anchored by a 
1019 mb high in the central Gulf. This supports light to gentle 
winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for gentle 
to moderate E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche associated with
a surface trough. Aside from the moderate winds, the surface 
trough in the Bay of Campeche is generating scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms in the SW Gulf, while scattered showers
extend across the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to 
moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds 
over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds 
reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern 
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week.  Slight to 
moderate seas are expected through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant tropical moisture accompanying the tropical wave along
65W has encountered favorable upper level conditions produce by an
elongated middle to upper-level low pressure just N of the Greater
Antilles to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across
much of the eastern Caribbean east of 70W. This upper level 
feature is also supporting strong scattered afternoon convection 
across Hispaniola and Cuba. The pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low 
continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 
8-11 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and 
highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean 
away from areas of convection associated with the tropical wave 
near 65W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft there. Elsewhere, moderate or 
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The E Pacific 
extension of the monsoon continues to support scattered strong 
convection over the waters near the coasts of Costa Rica and 
Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to 
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
over the central Caribbean through Tue night. Expect winds to 
reach near- gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will 
continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds 
will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and 
thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean tonight
accompanying the tropical wave along 65W. The wave and its 
associated moisture will reach Hispaniola and the central 
Caribbean waters on Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal boundary continues to meander just north of
the area along 32N-33N between 57W and 73W. A surface trough, 
remnants of a stationary front, extends from a 1018 mb low 
pressure near 32N73W to the SE FL coast. Scattered showers and 
a few thunderstorms are seen along and near the trough axis, while
scattered showers and thunderstorms previal across much of the 
central and northwestern Atlantic between the stalled front and
27N, from 46W to 72W, and focused along another surface trough 
from 31N66W to 29N60W to 30N56W. A middle to upper-level low 
north of the Dominican Republic is also aiding in the development 
of strong scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
Hispaniola and Cuba. Otherwise, the Azores High extends a ridge 
southwestward across the subtropical Atlantic waters, thus 
supporting mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas 
across much of the waters S of 20N. Fresh to locally strong trades
prevail across areas from 10N to 15N between 50W and the Lesser 
Antilles, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and
3-6 ft seas prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough across the NW
waters to SE Florida will gradually dissipate tonight while 
drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The 
Atlantic ridge will then build westward into central Florida 
through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to 
fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds 
elsewhere. 

$$
Stripling