239 
WTPZ35 KNHC 190851
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025
 
...ERICK VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...BRINGING EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR ITS CORE... 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 97.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 97.9 West.  Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight.  On the forecast track, the
center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion
of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican
state of Guerrero within the next few hours, and then continue 
inland over southern Mexico later today.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Erick is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  After landfall, Erick should rapidly
weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to
dissipate tonight or early Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with
maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning 
area beginning during the next few hours, with extremely destructive 
winds near the core of Erick.  Hurricane conditions are possible in 
the hurricane watch area today. Tropical Storm conditions are 
currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area.  Tropical 
storm conditions are ongoing in the tropical storm warning area. 
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains 
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds 
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be 
even greater.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected
to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center
crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds.  The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through today.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch