000
WTPZ32 KNHC 290233
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...POLO ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 112.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case this evening into 
Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed in Baja California Sur or rushed to completion shortly in 
Sonora.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
next 12 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 112.5 West. Polo is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion with
a gradual acceleration is anticipated through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to make landfall
along the coast of Baja California Sur within the next couple of
hours, then move inland over southern Sonora Tuesday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
Polo makes landfall on Baja California Sur. Polo is also expected to
be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall in mainland
Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast on Tuesday when Polo moves well
inland over mainland Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across Baja California Sur
in the warning area during the next several hours, and these
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight. In mainland
Mexico, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area early Tuesday morning.
 
A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday
and Tuesday night in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 expected across southern and
central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products
from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi