000
WTPZ32 KNHC 282032
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Vance Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
200 PM MST Wed Oct 28 2026
 
...VANCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 109.1W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the
progress of Vance.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vance
was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 109.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 
day or so, and Vance is expected to become post-tropical within the 
next 24 hours, dissipating shortly thereafter. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern
Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals
of 7 inches possible over central and southern Sinaloa. This
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
along steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern
portion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin