129 
WTPZ32 KNHC 271746
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
1100 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING POLO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS POWERFUL POLO 
APPROACHES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 114.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located by 
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 
114.0 West. Polo is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph 
(19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed 
by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, 
Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur 
on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday night and then approach 
northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the 
next day or two, but Polo is forecast to remain a strong hurricane 
when it reaches Baja California Sur on Monday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated by dropsonde data is 950 mb 
(28.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area 
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon, 
with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of 
the warning area by tonight into early Monday. These conditions are 
expected to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur 
on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane 
Watch area in mainland northwestern Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals
of 8 expected across portions of Sonora.  This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward
along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the
remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin