000
WTPZ32 KNHC 282336
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
500 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...POLO NEARING LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 112.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case late this afternoon
into Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed or rushed to completion shortly.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
next 12 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located 
near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 112.8 West. Polo is moving 
toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with 
a gradual acceleration is anticipated through Tuesday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Polo is expected to make landfall 
along the coast of Baja California Sur later this evening, then 
move inland over southern Sonora Tuesday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before 
Polo makes landfall on Baja California Sur. Polo is also expected to 
be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall in mainland 
Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast on Tuesday when Polo moves well 
inland over mainland Mexico. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across Baja California Sur 
within the warning area during the next few hours, and these 
conditions are possible in the watch area later this evening. In 
mainland Mexico, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning 
area and possible in the watch area early Tuesday morning.
 
A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday
and Tuesday night in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of 
the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the 
next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening 
surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products 
from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi