411 
WTPZ32 KNHC 280852
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA TODAY AND TUESDAY...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS MORNING IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 113.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch along the 
east coast of Baja California Sur north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia 
San Juan Bautista to a Hurricane Warning.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan 
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 30
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 113.8 West. Polo is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the 
northeast is expected this afternoon, followed by a slight increase 
in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Polo is 
expected to move inland along the coast of Baja California Sur late 
this afternoon or early this evening, then move inland in southern 
Sonora late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to be near major hurricane 
strength when it reaches Baja California Sur late today, and it is 
expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico 
late tonight or early Tuesday morning.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late this afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern portion of
the warning area later this morning. These conditions are expected
to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur later
today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico late tonight through early Tuesday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin tonight.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across 
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen