000
WTPZ32 KNHC 212050
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 PM CST Mon Sep 21 2026
 
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWS POLO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
today or tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located 
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 15.1 North, 
longitude 102.7 West. Polo is moving toward the east-southeast near 
6 mph (9 km/h).  This general motion is expected tonight, with a 
sharp turn towards the northwest and west-northwest anticipated 
late Tuesday into Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the core is 
Polo is expected to be near or south of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Polo is expected to continue rapidly 
intensifying, becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday, with further 
intensification likely though midweek.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal 
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through 
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6 
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and 
Jalisco through Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake