000
WTPZ32 KNHC 212339
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
600 PM CST Mon Sep 21 2026
 
...POLO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR 
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 102.4W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later 
tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located 
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.4 West. Polo is moving 
toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected 
to continue tonight, with a sharp turn towards the northwest and 
west-northwest anticipated late Tuesday into Wednesday. On the 
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near or south of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next 
couple of days, and Polo is expected to become a major hurricane on 
Tuesday. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal 
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through 
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6 
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and 
Jalisco through Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin