000
WTPZ32 KNHC 252052
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026
 
...NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURES CATEGORY 5 WINDS IN POLO...
...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 109.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress
of this system. Watches could be required for a portion of the area
tonight or early Saturday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 109.2 West. Polo is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is expected to 
continue this evening, followed by a gradual turn toward the 
northwest on Saturday and north on Sunday. By Monday, Polo is 
forecast to turn northeastward and approach Baja California Sur.
 
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds remain near 180 mph (285 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today, 
but slow weakening is expected by the weekend. Polo is expected to 
remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur 
early next week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on the latest data 
from the NOAA aircraft is 913 mb (26.96 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated
with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky