000
WTPZ32 KNHC 241439
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
900 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
...POLO STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 104.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Manzanillo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Polo is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the 
west is expected later today and Friday, followed by a west- 
northwestward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of 
Polo is expected to move away from the coast of southwestern Mexico 
today.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in strength are possible
during the next couple of days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 928 mb (27.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the coast of
Mexico in the warning area and should continue for a few more
hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the coast of Mexico during the next several hours.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches across
coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima,
northern and southern Jalisco, and Nayarit. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible
in coastal portions of the Mexican states of central Jalisco and
Guerrero.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward
Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven