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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory


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000
WTNT35 KNHC 200837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 58.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 58.7 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A west-northwest
to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over
the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin later today,
but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi