Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

U.S. Watch/Warning   Local Products   UPDATE  


000
WTNT33 KNHC 282356
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA BATTERING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 89.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF SLIDELL LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 89.9 West. Zeta is moving toward
the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) A faster north-
northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even
faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward
motion early Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will
move from southeastern Louisiana into southeastern Mississippi
during the next hour or two, and then move across the southeastern
and eastern United States later tonight and on Thursday.

Radar and surface data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.  Weakening
will continue to occur while Zeta moves over the southeastern United
States on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).  Shell Beach Louisiana recently reported sustained
winds of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). A
Weatherflow station at New Orleans Lakefront Airport recently
reported a minimum central pressure of 973 mb (28.74 mb).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL border...7-11 ft
MS/AL border to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River
including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected within
the Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are also likely beginning within the
Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast in a few
hours.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.  Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf
Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into
the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through
Thursday.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake